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Gracias por no tirar el cortador.
Joakim Soria's 2011 season was by far that worst season he has had in the majors. He had career highs in ERA, FIP, WHIP and HR/FB. Here is a quick look at his career stats.
| Season | Saves | BS | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2007 | 17 | 4 | 62 | 69.0 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 74% | 2.48 | 2.50 | 3.19 | 2.40 |
| 2008 | 42 | 3 | 63 | 67.1 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 90% | 1.60 | 3.25 | 3.62 | 1.60 |
| 2009 | 30 | 3 | 47 | 53.0 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 87% | 2.21 | 2.74 | 2.90 | 1.80 |
| 2010 | 43 | 3 | 66 | 65.2 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 89% | 1.78 | 2.53 | 2.85 | 2.00 |
| 2011 | 28 | 7 | 60 | 60.1 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 72% | 4.03 | 3.49 | 3.38 | 0.90 |
| Total | 160 | 20 | 298 | 315.1 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 82% | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 8.80 |
Over the course of his career, he was able to post an ERA that was lower than his FIP and xFIP by keeping runners on base to a career number of 82% LOB%. His LOB% was closer to 90% from 2008 to 2010 (90%, 87%, 89%). He may have been lucky over the course of those 3 seasons, but I believe a change to his pitch repertoire caused him problems in 2011.
In 2011, he began the season throwing quite a few cutters. This pitch ended up getting hammered. Here are the stats from the 1st two months when he threw the cutter over half the time and the rest of the season when he threw it 1/5th of the time:
| Dates | % of Cutter Thrown | SV | BS | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/BB | BABIP | ERA |
| March 1st to May 31st | 56% | 7 | 5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.354 | 6.55 |
| June 1st to Sept 31st | 21% | 21 | 2 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 0.294 | 2.58 |
The cutter, which is supposed to induced weak contact, ended up getting knocked around. His HR/9 was over twice his career average. Kyle Davies was even able to put up a K/BB greater than Soria (1.9 vs. 1.6). Soria ended up blowing more saves in those first 2 months than in any previous complete season.
For 2011, I expect the Royals will see the Soria of old as long as he keeps the number of cutters he throws to a minimum.
0 recs | 21 comments
Maybe Soria's problem was cutting back his trips to Starbucks
Because coffee is for closers.
thelaundry - January 12, 2012
Good article
I don’t understand why Soria was throwing his cutter 56% of the time to start last season. I can understand tinkering, but don’t fix what is broken.
Connor Moylan - January 12, 2012
Don't fix what is broken?
BabyBlues - January 12, 2012
it is the mantra of the coaching staff
Winning!buddyball - January 12, 2012
Obviously, he is a Mac user.
dejackso - January 12, 2012
I really need to proofread my comments
Connor Moylan - January 12, 2012 via mobile
It's OK,
don’t go and fix what’s broken ;)
SagehenMacGyver47 - January 12, 2012
he wants to be
Mariano Rivera. Seriously, I think he was trying to learn to throw the cutter as dominantly as Rivera.
sfeldkamp - January 12, 2012
Bob Mcclure
KHAZAD - January 12, 2012
cutter
I believe I was seeing a regular fastball getting hit. The whole “cutter” phenomenon was way overblown to me.
Monte W - January 14, 2012
Jeff, what do you make of the pitch f/x data at Fangraphs re use of cutter?
Pre-2010, it has Soria throwing only fastballs with virtually no cutters. For 2010, it has Soria with 0% FB and 75% cutters. For 2011, it has Soria with 45% FB and 33% cutters. If the data is correct, why the problem with the cutter in 2011 when he threw it with success in 2010?
Gopherballs - January 12, 2012
For Whatever Reason
He seemed to have little command of the cutter in 2011. Subjectively, I remember him leaving up and out of the zone to the arm side a lot. Soria’s trademark is fastball on the outside corner for strike one , and he was not pitching that way the first half of last season. He seemed to be throwing more fat pitches when he was behind in the count, too. He looked more like his old self after the ASB.
I noticed that Pitch FX identified some of his pitches as cutters that I don’t think were. I never saw him throw a 90+ MPH cutter, but that’s what they called them sometimes. 2-seamer maybe?
philofthenorth - January 12, 2012
there was some mis-classification in 2010 with the cutter. It should have been a fastball (sorry, I should have explained it).
Cutters and normal fastballs are close, but you can see here the 2011 cutter has a little more horizontal movement (cutting action).
Jeff Zimmerman - January 12, 2012
His numbers from June to the end of 2011 were not Soria at his best, but not bad: 1.043 WHIP, 2.58 ERA; 9.63 K/9 (I don’t know what his xFIP or FIP were for that period).
kansasjohn - January 12, 2012
Those were about the same numbers as 2010.
He did OK that year.
Jeff Zimmerman - January 12, 2012
xFIP by month - Mar/Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sept/Oct
5.37
3.06
2.47
3.59
3.19
1.43
Season xFIP, 3.38, career 3.20
FIP is a little more dramatic, which may be OK if we believe he can suppress his HR/FB rate better than average:
5.08
5.25
1.53
4.31
2.72
0.43
Season FIP 3.49, career 2.90.
SagehenMacGyver47 - January 12, 2012
I don't have (or know of a way) to figure xFIP or FIP leaving out the first two garbage months.
I appreciate the information you provided.
kansasjohn - January 13, 2012
FIP has a fairly standard formula
How to adjust the HR/FB rate in xFIP, I do not know – probably divide the HRs in the formula by the actual HR/FB rate and multiply by the league average rate, but I’m not sure.
SagehenMacGyver47 - January 13, 2012
Soria's apparent demise
Is nonexistent, I think. The guy’s had his worst year by far and his FIP was 3.49. If this is Soria’s ‘bad year’, I think we’re pretty set.
Yodazilla - January 12, 2012
In my pre-season projections, which will probably change before spring training is through
I’ve currently got Soria pegged for:
60 games
65 innings (1.083 IP/G)
62 hits (8.6 H/9)
24 runs
23 earned (3.18 ERA)
7 HR (1 HR/9)
18 BB (2.5 BB/9)
69 K (9.6 K/9)
3.83 K:BB
1.231 WHIP
stlfan - January 13, 2012
anyone else wonder if those BS in the beginning of the season
gets the Royals back to their pythagorean 78 wins? Like, 4 of them.
ChrisCEIT - January 13, 2012
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