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Royals Review

Dayton Moore, Get Brian Cashman on the Phone. Trade Soria for Burnett and Hughes.

Future Royal?

Leon Halip - Getty Images

Future Royal?

Note: While I am in the middle of writing this article, I find that Matt Connor of SBN posts a similar articlelooking at trading Billy Butler for Phil Hughes.

With the Yankees trading for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda this past weekend, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett look to be the odd men out of the Yankees rotation. With the Yankees having an excess of starting pitchers, I propose the following trade with the Yankees.

Kansas City gets:

  • A.J. Burnett
  • Phil Hughes

New York gets:

Star-divide

Why I think this trade works for both teams:

Kansas City's Perspective:

  • Kansas City is shallow on starting pitching and any help would be greatly needed. The Royals get two starting pitchers that they have control of for the next 2 years as some of their young pitchers develop. While neither pitcher is lights out, they have had better season than any starter currently on the Royals staff.
  • A.J. Burnett's best run with the Yankees came when the Royals new pitching coach, Dave Eiland, was the Yankees pitching coach.
  • The Royals have a little salary flexibility now and can be able to absorb Burnett's $16.5M salary. The Yankees may have to throw in some cash (around $5M to probably) to make the deal work.
  • They are buying low on Hughes and Burnett.
  • The Royals bullpen in a strong point and their are plenty of young relievers ready to join.
New York's Perspective
  • With Freddy Garcia already signed, they have their 5 man rotation set for the season.
  • The Yankees are going to need to replace Rivera a some point and Soria could easily be that guy.
  • Yankees are buying low on Soria.
  • No more A.J. Burnett.
Thoughts?

2 recs  |  147 comments

Comments

Royals rotation

Who are you proposing gets left out of Royals rotation?

Probably Duffy/Paulino.
Ugh.

Paulino should be the first guy IN the rotation. Go from there.

I tend to concur on this matter.
Still offended

I still get offended when we talk about trading Soria. I know we have Kelvin Herrera in the wings but I just hate so see another guy leave. It’s destined to happen, like a bad marriage but still, I can’t explain to you why I love her, I JUST DO!

there's also this guy Gregg Holland....

you know, they guy who is going to set up Proven Closer Turned Set Up Man Jonathan Broxton, despite being better than Broxton and probably Soria, too.

It's all true

Like I said, in denial. Interestingly enough, I’ve never liked Soria’s stuff. He get’s banged around a lot in MLB 11 The Show. Do you think Holland is a guy we are willing to hang on to and continue to develop to let a proven guy like Soria go?

It's simple.

Soria is worth more because he’s a proven closer. It doesn’t really change things much just because Holland is a better pitcher. But yes, they will hold on to Holland, I think because they have him under control for quite a while.

So Soria gets banged around in MLB 11, huh?

im flabbergasted right now...

do you really not like soria b/c he isnt good on a video game?

Don't you see the logic?
No, it was completely a joke.

I have no idea how that was taken seriously. Have you met Royals fans the delusional?

Something Called Regression May Happen to Holland

Maybe you’ve heard of it.

not likely to regress too much based on his peripheral numbers
falling in love with your own players

to the point of losing objectivity, has been the undoing of many a GM.

but isn't this part of fandom?
I get the gist of the argument, because I can't stand...

this constant offering up of trades because
1. who knows what the GMs are thinking
2. can I just enjoy the player while their here rather than wanting to ship them out first chance? (fandom)

however, we all love to play out scenarios in which we are the GM and it is a useful tool to discuss pro baseball, still…

can’t stand when espn runs a poll on who will win the National Championship in 2013 before the one in 2012 has been played…we are now in a constant “What’s Next?” culture

True, my tag name isn't MVP-Gordon or anything.........
From a fans perspective, it is always more fun to have home grown players

When I think what it would be like to be a yankees fan, it never seems that appealing.

They win a whole lot, but most of their players have been won at auction or received in exchange for prospects. I think I read last year that they had something like 11 former 1st round picks on the team, but only one was from their own system….If we had ponied up for Pujols, I can honestly say, I wouldn’t be super excited (though I wouldn’t have hated it).

Now, obviously I am VERY biased so I am unable to be completely objective, but the reason I brought up the yanks is in reference to them just trading away uber prospect, Montero for PIneda. To me, it was a very smart trade that made them much better now and in the long run. This seemed to be the general opinion I got from the major publications and blogs alike.

But when I went to the NY blogs, the feelings were different. The feeling about it was not nearly as rosy. Most seemed so infatuated with Montero turning into the next Posada (except with Miguel Cabrera’s bat), that they didn’t like the trade. My point being that maybe they lost their objectivity in their love affair with Mr. Montero.

It's the truth.

I was fortunate enough along with many more today that got to meet Billy Duffy and Monty tonight. I felt like especially Duffy was very grateful to be around fans and hear compliments.

I hope we can continue to grow guys in our own Farm System who enjoy being Royals as much as we love watching them.

I am jealous

It must have been fun to meet those guys before they are corrupted by money and fame. Johnny Damon at 21 was humble, polite and appreciative when I met him.

10 yrs later he was on Letterman bragging about how many women he cheated on his wife with.

…Im just kidding. they don’t all turn out like that. Randa was always a class act…Many others

I met DeJESUS a few years ago and he was very humble as well.

Where’s kim?

If you were married to that woman, you wouldn't be humble.

Not saying DeJesus isn’t humble, but it would be impressive if he still is.

I don't know man....

I figure my fiance is about as hot as there is in this world.. shits serious.

Are you saying that somehow, despite having a smokin hot GF,

you have managed to remain modest and unassuming?

Your opinion of her isn’t humble. If that counts for anything.

Dude, you met Billy Duffy from the Cult?!?

Did you ask why Ian Atsbury is such a jerk?

I met Astbury many years ago...

…and even mentioned it in an OT thread around here recently.

He didn’t seem like a jerk then. Also, he was too stoned to speak.

I understand that he's very cool to the public

But has an artist’s temper. That’s cool for you though. I love the Cult.

100% Agreeable with you!
I really like this idea.

I think the front office is looking to add a pitcher or two still. I do not think we are standing pat, unless nothing is done in the next month or so. I think that the team recognizes that we need to fill the starting pitching hole, and I think this would be a good way to do so.

Luke Hughes had a down year, but he was terrific in the two previous years. Dave Eiland knows both of these pitchers well, and I think that’s a good thing if we want to trade for these guys.

If any of the younger pitchers do well in AAA, we can trade Burnett for prospects.

However, we may need to add in a B prospect in order to make the deal work. I think that Soria + B prospect (Maybe Chris Dwyer) could get it done.

On second thought...

I think that we’re better off just trading Soria for Hughes straight up.

^This.

i was gonna post this below. but Jack beat me to it.

Phil Hughes, Yankees agreed to 1 year contract

I feel good about that signing! Country Boy rumors, no longer a worry on my behalf! BB belongs in KC..especially for this season. I just want the season to start :) and don’t want anymore trades for now. We should be ok, with what we have now. Soria will be wi KC as well, don’t think he will be traded. I’ve ask before, does it matter if “Soria” contract has “no trade clause” written on his contract? If the Royals wanted to trade him, don’t they need his permission first? I see Soria, playing with KC this season.

that damn bruce chen signing

just gets uglier and uglier when you think of possibilities like this.

No doubt, there are so many guys with better upside than Chen out there still.

The Rays haven’t made a trade. Neither have the Braves. Wandy and Myers are still in Houston. Dempster or Garza in Chicago. Oswalt hasn’t signed. Neither has Jackson. Even Jon Garland or Brad Penny might be interesting. Hell, gamble on Harden or Webb.

option #1 would be Joe Saunders in my eyes

no one else is acceptable.

Why?

I thought keeping Chen was good. He pitched well last season.

Francis hasn’t signed either.

2 year/$20 million

Who wants to bet Dayton’s already made the offer!?

plus a mutual option
Francis is probably holding out

Knowing Dayton will make it a 3-year deal for $30 million.

Kim

Not everyone needs 30 million to let their wife paint her nails his new clubs team colors…..

Sorry for you Canadian, colours
this chen part is accurate

though i’m not sure why burnett is attractive in the least bit

I have never liked him as a pitcher

I blame it on a bad experience having him on my fantasy team

This strikes me as terrible

Are Burnett and Hughes even upgrades over what we have now?

Maybe Hughes.

Not Burnett, now that I think about it a little more.

ZIPS

Hughes 4.84 ERA
Burnett 5.32 ERA

About as good as Nate Adcock or Luis Mendoza.

If we're going to trade Soria

I’d rather get something akin to the Nestor Molina deal.

I know Burnett is a huge gamble, but Hughes projection will be off from his first 3 starts

when he had a near 14 ERA, BB/9 > K/9.

It is a chance, but one I feel the Royals need to try to make.

I'm okay taking a gamble on Hughes

I just don’t think you trade Soria for him.

And Burnett should be kept far, far away from here. He has no business being here.

I think a team could get Hughes by just eating enough of Burnett's salary

save Soria for Montero

Soria for Pineda.

Now.

might have to add Lough
NOT CROB!!!!
No way we trade CRob

Simply got too much invested in him. Trade Butler and Hosmer, CRob can play 1B AND DH.

This is parody right?
The Royals have a little salary flexibility now and can be able to absorb Burnett’s $16.5M salary. The Yankees may have to throw in some cash (around $5M to probably) to make the deal work.

The Yanks would have to pay all the salary to get even a token minor leaguer right now.

I feel like you’re putting us on.

I would like this deal way more,

if the Yanks were willing to take on all of Burnett’s, hope for a comeback/breakout from him and then try to flip him for a prospect at the deadline.

What kind of world is it

where the Royals have more payroll flexibility than the Yankees?

The world will definitely end in 2012 now!

Shocked to discover that Phil Hughes really does only have two more years of club control

I like Hughes, but his secondary stuff has never really blossomed. This has resulted in problems against lefthanded hitters.

Career v. LHB: 7.37 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 1.78 K/BB, 1.27 HR/9, 4.76 FIP, 4.57 xFIP
Career v. RHB: 7.63 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.39 K/BB, 0.88 HR/9, 3.52 FIP, 3.98 xFIP

I certainly like the idea of cashing in Soria, but I am not that excited about Hughes (or taking part of Burnett’s salary even if for only two years).

FanGraphs

I was looking at Grienke stuff the other day, and the same story could have been told about him before 09’. However, his fastball location was phenomenal for several years even when put against guys like Cliff Lee and Justin Highlander. There can be only one.

Greinke had a plus curve since his MLB debut in 2004

and his changeup was only a little below average per Fangraphs. Greinke was also solid against lefties before 2009 and was legitimately good against them in 2008.

You forgot his slider.

He has a very good slider.

it's unhittable

He only had problems when hitters realized that and started laying off it altogether.

Here's a better idea:

We could sign one of Saunders/Oswalt, Keep Soria, have an extra spot in the rotation, and not have to worry about AJ Burnett or his salary!

Right

If you’re going to get a league average pitcher like Hughes, why not just spend some money and get a FA? The market seems deflated for mediocre pitchers.

And then trade two B prospects for Hughes if we have to.
why do we need starters?

we have the best farm system ever

just promote Wilmington

Brock Wilmington?

Yes, his FB hits 104, but he can’t get the knuckler to wobble like he did in Junior High.

Starters for 2012

The way I see it, in no particular order, the starters are:
Sanchez
Hochevar
Paulino
Chen
Crow
Duffy
Teaford
Montgomery

8 man rotation or are you assuming injuries/ineffectiveness?
The latter

Not THAT crazy…even if I am from STL.

maybe we can make a couple of them relievers

totally forgot

SOS and Mazarro

and Mendoza. dont forget Mendoza!!
nope

didn’t. :)

Doesn't jack have a No-trade clause

that includes the yanks?

Yea, its just for negotiation purposes

So he can get more money.

Last time this came up

he said he would be willing to waive it to go there. And he said it a little too eagerly if I recall.

What an awful idea.
Is this an...

…April Fool’s Joke foisted on us mid-winter? This is just a terrible idea. Trade a bright shining star (Soria) for an overpriced, underperforming veteran starter (Burnett) and a young hardthrowing guy (Hughes) that’s no better than the talent we have coming up.

Were you paid, Zimmerman, to write this? Terrible. – TL

I kept fumbling...

…with my mouse in the hopes of finding a newly installed “UNREC” button near the bottom of the post.

If you think it's a bad idea, that's fine.

But I don’t think you’re seeing the logic in the idea, which isn’t allowing you to properly evaluate it. I personally disagree with the deal because I don’t think our salary should expand for Burnett and I don’t think Hughes deserves any optimism. However, trading a closer that is getting more expensive for a starting pitcher is always something to consider.

$25MM

for A.J., I prefer not..let him stay with the Yankee’s or another team. But not KC!

I still have confidence in Soria as a great closer

I’m not worried about last season. It happens to darn near every reliever. Plus, he was very good for half the year.

I don’t like trading Soria because I think he will be a valuable asset once we become a contender. It doesn’t make sense to trade away key pieces this year. Why not just be active next offseason in acquiring starting pitching? I firmly believe this organization heading into next year will be 1 starting pitcher away from dominating the division in 2013. Take Soria away and now we’ll be in need of a closer.

If you can convince me that Broxton will be a reliable closer for us the next couple of years, then go ahead and trade Soria. I’m just not certain he can

"Plus, he was very good for half the year."

1st half – 37 games, 4.03 era
2nd half – 23 games, 4.03 era

what happens if you do something besides randomly pick a point...

say half of his innings, or appearances, or half of the season?

not sure

I used the most common half way point. The AS break. I only looked in the first place because it seemed to my memory that we all thought his early season troubles were behind him and then they cropped up again late.

I will do that if you don’t post it first

fair enough

first 30 – 4.65
last 30 – 3.38

I didn't say first or 2nd half...

I said HALF of the season….

I don’t have the numbers in front of me nor am I going to look it up but he had chunks of the season where he pitched very well.

Why spend $20MM on two mediocre pitchers when you can sign an ace (5-6 WAR pitcher) for that money?

Then promote a prospect (Duffy/Monty) type who will give you 1 or 2 WAR for $400K. You’ll end up with 6-8 WAR for $20MM instead of 3-4 WAR for $20MM.

which Ace are we signing?

If this were an option AND you could get the Ace to consider KC that would be a much better option.

Right, why spend $20MM on two pitchers who will give you 3-4WAR,

when you can have Duffy and Monty give you 2-3WAR for $1MM?

Not cool man

not cool

It seems like Burnett is being undervalued

His WAR/IP for his career is 0.017. Over 200 IP that is 3.4 WAR. If you take out his last two years, which look more like abberations than regresions (IMO), he’s 0.019, or 3.8 WAR over 200 IP.

I don’t know that I would trade Soria for him, but I would definitely gamble on him, and would expect a huge drop in his HR/FB rate that increased after they moved into the new Yankee Stadium that plays like a whiffle ball field.

Burnett's splits

show that his ERA, WHIP, FIP, and xFIP were all significantly lower at Yankee Stadium than on the road for the past two years.

so we will only use him when we play in New York

or maybe we should get him and trade him to the BoSox, using the same argument

Why would his last two years be aberrations rather than regressions?

He’s 35 years old, he ain’t getting younger. And that’s a lot to give up both in talent and money to find out if it was merely an aberration.

The biggest difference in the past two seasons is his Zone%. His walk rate hasn’t changed, which means he was falling into hitter’s counts. That is more of a mechanic/mental issue.

Well, I don't know what Zone % is and why it matters, but

His K% in 2009-2011 is significantly down from his 2004-2008 rates, and his BB% is slightly up for the same years.

His FB velocity (92.7MPH) is down over 2 MPH since 2008, and the velocity on his changeup and curveball is up over 1MPH (82.6 and 88.2 MPH).

2009: 94.2 MPH
2010: 93.1 MPH
2011: 92.7 MPH

Also, he throws the fastball less every year. In 2009, it was 64.1% of his arsenal. In 2011, that was down to 39.9%.

Also, in 2009 he was 32. Next year he’ll be 35.

I think you’re making a lot of unwarranted assumptions.

Also, regarding your earlier comment, WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat. For five years, he was something just shy of a 3 rWAR (4 fWAR) pitcher. Then for the last 2 years, he was something south of a 1rWAR (1.5 fWAR) pitcher.

I don’t see how you reasonably project that to a 3.8 WAR next year. It seems you have to abuse the stat a little to come to that conclusion (WAR per IP? Really?).

I don't like it

If you’re going to balloon our payroll, I’d rather risk it on players like Edwin Jackson and a year of Roy Oswalt. Burnett is spent and Hughes doesn’t do much for me. Plus if Crow moves to the rotation like D-Moore has suggested he will, we’ll need Soria’s live arm in the Pen. If you’re bent on trading Soria, do it for a young arm with upside. You throw that same money at Jackson/Oswalt and you’re 2012 rotation looks something like this:
R. Oswalt
E. Jackson
L. Hochever
J. Sanchez
B. Chen/ Paulino
Send Duffy back to AAA to gain some confidence and let him and Montgomery battle it out for the spot whenever someone gets injured. That’s a rotation that could have us competing for a division title.
Hopefully your rotation in 2013 looks like this:
E. Jackson
L. Hochever
B. Chen
D. Duffy
M. Montgomery/J. Odorizzi
Again with Crow and Paulino as insurance this rotation should hopefully be able to compete for years forward.

Don't Forget Teaford

He has been fantastic in winter ball and should be the front-runner for the #5 spot. He makes way less than Hughes and Burnett and would probably put up equal or better #’s. That allows Duffy more time in AAA. Then in 2013, if Hoch, Chen, Sanchez or Paulino have trade value, we can swap them and promote Duffy, Montgomery, Odirizzi, Lamb who will have had ample time to develop.

KC’s rotation should be decent being that our bullpen is loaded with great arms and deep. If our starters can throw 6 decent innings on a consistent basis, we should be able to compete in not only the AL central, but the AL. Soria should have a comeback year— doesn’t make sense to trade him after a down year., imo.

I'm pretty sure Duffy is the front runner for the 5th starter spot

….or maybe even the 4th starter spot, with Paulino considered the 5th starter by Moore/Yost. Teaford is SP depth that probably won’t embarrass you, but that’s about all.

Got to see Teaford, Crow and Coleman from the Royals Caravan today.

All of them might not make the opening day roster.

Coleman will

Dude’s lethal against righties. Crow and Teaford might not.

Teaford is underrated...

I hope he comes in to Spring Training and forces himself on the roster. IIRC he was pretty damn decent out of the pen last year and in the minors starting, he was even better.

if by pretty damn decent you mean below replacement level, then yes
he had a nice shiny ERA but unless you expect him to continue to have a crazy low BABIP

and a crazy high strand rate, then there was quite a bit of luck involved more than likely

I say if you are of the mindset to trade Soria

try making him a starter. That way, if it works out, you have another starter, if not, put him back in the bullpen and then maybe trade him.

I don't like it

I’m all for moving Soria, but not for this. The upside coming from Hughes and Burnett doesn’t come close to Soria. Best case long term scenario is Burnett rebounds to a middle of the rotation guy and Hughes figures it out to become another middle of the rotation guy IMO. While that’s very valuable to have, I don’t think it makes up for what Soria can do and I certainly think we could get something better.

I liken this to a trade I made with my fantasy baseball team last March. My pitching was thin so I traded the #6 overall pick in our dynasty draft for John Lackey and Jeff Niemann. I could have drafted Hoz but wanted two solid pitchers who I could rely on for my staff, and they were both cut by Memorial Day. I just think we could do better than two middle of the road SPs (at best, IMO) for Soria.

I think Hughes is a bad season away

From being non-tendered

I find it sad that we won't be able to Adcock to any game this year
Why did they decide to Subtractcock to AAA this year?
Because he's not ready to be a big league pitcher.

He wasn’t ready last year, but being a rule 5 guy, he had to be on the 25 roster all year. I think it says alot about him though that they continue to protect him and are trying to make him a starter.

I don't like this idea

I think Soria is stil a fairly valuable trade chip. Burnett doesn’t project well and he’s quite expensive (even with the Yankees kicking in $5M). Hughes is decent but iffy, and he only has two years left.

I’d rather keep Soria than get this kind of return for him.

That makes two of us!
This is quick and dirty

But I think this trade would mean swapping (all values are a total for the next two years)

Soria, $14M, 3.5 WAR

for

Burnett, $25M, 3.2 WAR (after the Yankees eat $8M of his remaining contract, which they are reported to be willing to do)
and
Hughes, $7.7M, 3.8 WAR

So that is:
$14M for 3.5 WAR = $4M per WAR
vs.
$32.7M for 7 WAR = $4.7M per WAR

The Yankees are getting the better end of that deal. Now one could argue that $4.7M per WAR is a better deal than the Royals are likely to get for a SP (or two) on the FA market and that’s quite possibly true. But that $14M for Burnett is really wasted money. IMO, with the pitchers the Royals have, they’ll have no trouble coming up with some 1.5-1.7 WAR SP’s, so Burnett would just be replacing another pitcher who would provide the same production for league minimum. Hughes would be an asset, but not enough to justify a Soria trade.

I'll eat my hat if Burnett and Hughes produce 7 WAR over the next two years.
Not that I'm criticizing your projection

Its entirely possible, I just think Burnett is about washed up.

I was trying to be reasonable and not just assume that Burnett is worthless...although he might be

For the sake of argument, I guessed:

Burnett 1.7 and 1.5 WAR
Hughes 1.9 and 1.9 WAR

The Yankees have basically no need for Soria at all, with Rafael Soriano (sigh) Cory Wade, David Robertson, AND Joba Chamberlain. It’d be awesome to get rid of Burnett, but Soria is not needed.

The Yankees would want a DH type bat

You can have Clint Robinson. But you’ll need to throw in about $20M.

By $20M, you mean 20 muffins, right? Right?

Is Burnett planning on retiring before Opening Day?
Good!

I rather keep Soria then get Burnett!

A DH type bat?

Hell, they can have a whole case of any type of bats they want. But we’ve gotten rid of any excess offense. Keep looking.

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