Brad Lidge was available for $1 million. One million. It's enough to make every other team other than the Washington Nationals shake their heads. And if it doesn't, then it definitely should.
Let's compare two deals. Lidge just signed for one-year at $1 million with the Nats. The Kansas City Royals struck a deal with Jonathan Broxton for one year at $4 million. To keep things quite simple, the mathematical equation would read: Brad Lidge x 4 = Jonathan Broxton.
Two dominant relievers over the last few seasons in the National League. Two pitchers coming off of seasons riddled and ruined by injuries. Both are similar projects hoping to bounce back with one-year deals before hitting the market for another big closer-type of payday. One just happened to cost four times than the other.
Now, that's not to fault the Royals. They struck early and that's what the market dictated at that time. You could argue that the Royals should have waited, but they didn't and Broxton should be a fine addition to the pen that could use another veteran arm with the loss of Aaron Crow to the starting rotation. Plus a young pen that was overburdened last season will undoubtedly find some arms that fail to realize last season's success.
So this isn't so much a slight on the Royals signing of Broxton as it an object lesson in the beauty of waiting. Every year there are numerous veterans waiting on the late minute call before spring training as agents work the phones to get their guys into camp with someone. Lidge was one such guy and settled for another NL East destination for a middle relief spot at a cool million.
R.J. Anderson writes about Lidge's predicament and asks, "Did anyone, anyone at all, realize that Lidge’s earned run average over the past two seasons sits at 2.49? Probably not, and for good reason: Lidge missed most of the 2011 season with a shoulder strain. Upon return, Lidge brought his usual strikeout rates (albeit with an extra helping of walks) but lacked his trademark velocity. Instead, his average fastball sat below 90 miles per hour, which sent his slider usage through the roof."
Perhaps Broxton exhibited better health than Lidge. At the very least, however, Lidge did come back at season's end to show positive contributions from the pen. That's something Broxton cannot claim.
The saying reads, "The best things come to those who wait." Fan bases and some front offices are ruled by impatience. Local sports media are all over their teams to make a move -- now! -- in the name of fixing last season's problems. But here lies yet another example of letting a market settle before filling a hole. A decent bet could be made on Lidge being one of the best bargains on the market by the end of 2012.
3 recs | 66 comments
I think Broxton is a much better bet to stay healthy
And I think Broxton is still an injury risk. I think Lidge is close to done and I’d be surprise if he contributes positively this year.
Not saying that makes the Broxton deal good – I think there are some other decent arms (Juan Cruz redux?) that could have been brought in for next to nothing. And you could argue that we don’t need to bring in anyone because our pen is pretty damn good and cheap as is.
RoyalsRetro - January 27, 2012
Light out Lidge
was a long time ago, this guy will be very inconsistent this year and probobly for the worse.
Kansas City Keith - January 27, 2012
Lights
Kansas City Keith - January 27, 2012
Albert Pujols broke him
That ball has still not landed. True fact. You can look it up.
RoyalsRetro - January 27, 2012
Thats because,
once that ball pierced the atmosphere into space, there was no gravity to bring it back down.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
Or the Royals could have Dan Wheeler who just signed a minor league deal with the Indians
Oliver Projections (Name: K/9, BB/9, ERA)
Broxton: 9.9, 3.8, 3.66
Lidge: 8.1, 4.5, 4.39
Wheeler: 7.2, 2.0, 3.75
Jeff Zimmerman - January 27, 2012
Scott Atchison was just DFAed by Boston
ZIPs projects him at a 3.99 ERA
RoyalsRetro - January 27, 2012
so basically
if you want the best of the bunch, you still gotta pay the most.
306008 - January 27, 2012
I'm not entirely sure why we brought in Broxton
The Soria – Holland – Crow – Collins – Coleman – Wood – Adcock bullpen was pretty good.
Yeah, relievers are unpredictable, but that seems pretty solid to me.
Broxton’s a waste of money unless you’re going to move one of your relievers to the rotation. If not, then don’t stop relievin’ with what you have.
Juancho - January 27, 2012
But, but, but,
SUPER BULLPEN!
Old Man Duggan - January 27, 2012
Also brought in Mijares
maybe Soria is going to be traded
marbotty - January 28, 2012
Many people said the only way the Broxton signing made sense was if Soria were traded
And Soria hasn’t been traded. There isn’t even a decent rumor to that effect. So are those people now going to condemn the trade as silly and a waste of money that could have better been used elsewhere?
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
There was that silly
Rasmus for Soria and Cain rumor that PTP ran with for about a week (their source was espn deportes). I wouldn’t have been a fan of that.
At the time of the Broxton signing, it did seem a reasonable preempt to something bigger, but I’m fine that it hasn’t happened. I don’t think we would get good value right now.
Clark Fosler with royalsauthority wrote a competent article here stating that he thought Soria’s current trade value might be a Monty level prospect.
That would cause me to stop and ponder for a moment while stroking my beard. Hmmmmm.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
CONDEMNED!!!!!
RoyalsRetro - January 30, 2012
That pen blew a league high 23 saves.
that little nugget gets forgotten.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
Because blown saves is the best measure of bullpen effectiveness?
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
I would say to some degree, yes
Aaron Crow was given 7 chances to hold a lead in the 9 inning, and he failed every single time.
Now, I chalk most of this up to unluck, but I do think our poor save % as a team, anomoly or not, seems correlated to the gap between our pythagorean win projection and our actual win total.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
no, not the best measure at all.
I misread your question the first time (tired).
blown saves are telling, but not conclusive. It depends how you weigh high leverage situations relative to overall relief appearances.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
It was a very good bullpen
That should be good again in 2012 even without the additions of Broxton and Mijares. The bullpen was not an area of need and still Moore threw $5M at it.
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
A year ago, Robinson Tejada looked like a pretty valuable bullpen cog.
Yes, our bullpen looked solid before the aforementioned additions, but not particularly deep.
Now it looks solid AND deep.
I hate to jinx it, but someone we are banking on will go down, and Broxton will become gladly appreciated…So says my crystal ball.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
Which will be great if we're in the position to win the division.
If we’re 15 games out again, we’re talking about 5 million that could be combined with the Chen money to go into an extension or a real impact signing.
Warden11 - January 28, 2012
If we are 15 games out, we trade Soria and/or Broxton at the deadline.
For Mat Moore and Julio Tehran.
Problem solved!
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
If only that would happen...
Old Man Duggan - January 28, 2012
Those facile "trade at the deadline" solutions often don't happen
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
No, it looked good and deep before this
Major league talent, and minor league talent there. This was money thrown at a situation that didn’t need FA additions at all.
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
Yup.
setupunchtag - January 29, 2012
The Storm Chasers will have a near major league average pen now though.
Wood and Coleman may not make the 25 man roster.
BabyBlues - January 29, 2012
I was thinking it would be Wood and Herrera
With Coleman making the 25-man roster.
Scott McKinney - January 29, 2012
And how many belong to Soria?
DownUnderFan - January 28, 2012
7, career high, 5 in the first 2 months
Jeff Zimmerman - January 30, 2012
I thought Adcock was going to NWA or Omaha to start.
mitchfreakingmaier! - January 28, 2012
That's the conventional wisdom.
Old Man Duggan - January 28, 2012
$5M for Broxton + Mijares
And the bullpen was already stacked and deep. This was not a need. Sure more talent and depth always helps, but there were needs that could have been addressed. This was not one.
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
Looked it up
Fangraphs link here.
In 2011 the Royals’ relievers were ranked thus in the AL:
IP 3rd
K/9 4th
BB/9 13th (ouch)
HR/9 tied for 11th
ERA 7th
FIP 9th
xFIP 7th
WAR 7th, 3.1. Cleveland and Oakland put up 3.3 and Detroit 3.4, so those four teams are effectively tied for fourth.
And these stats include the Great Boom Boom Meltdown in Cleveland.
That means that the Royals’ bullpen was generally pretty decent, especially with Soria having an off-year.
According to Fangraphs the seven-man bullpen that settled out by midseason had 4.0 WAR; Holland 2.0, Soria 0.9, Wood 0.6, Crow 0.3, Coleman 0.1, Adcock 0.1, Collins 0.0. The eighth guy was Teaford with -0.2. They would have been a solid 4th without those SOS and Boom Boom moments of glory.
Baseball Reference, which seems to overvalue relievers, has the basic seven-man bullpen at 10.0 WAR; Holland 2.6, Crow 2.1, Coleman 1.6, Collins 1.1, Wood 0.9, Soria 0.8, Adcock 0.2. The eighth guy was Teaford with 0.7, giving the Royals’ bullpen 10.7 wins, not counting all the guys who pitched 7.1 innings and sucked.
If you believe BR, the bullpen was a positive strength, worth two hard-hitting sluggers. Certainly not anything that needed to be fixed.
Juancho - January 29, 2012
2.5 WAR of that 4.0 WAR bullpen will start in Omaha.
BabyBlues - January 29, 2012
the only way that is possible is if holland is in the minors to start the year
which has 0% chance of happening
billybeingbilly - January 29, 2012
Broxton vs Lidge
Broxton is younger and does not have the same history of injury. That would indicate to me all other things being equal, Broxton was a better bet. IMO DM made a good pickup.
maddirishman - January 27, 2012
But things aren't equal.
Broxton, while a better bet, cost $3 million more.
And there’s no reason to think we needed another reliever in the first place.
And even if Broxton was better than Lidge $4 million is still a lot to give to an injury prone, declining performance, setup guy.
So yes, if all else was equal, IF Broxton had signed for a closer amount($1.5 million?) and IF the royals were clear about moving Crow to the rotation and IF they honestly didn’t think any of the arms we have could fill that spot(Kelvin herrera?) then yes it was a good pick up.
But those things aren’t equal. So it isn’t really.
RoyalPug - January 27, 2012
Moore has a history of signing guys early, and for too much
Could be mistaken about some of these guys, but here’s an incomplete list of people he overpaid for, where patience could have yielded a cheaper, better alternative:
Kendall
Farnsworth
Guillen
Mahay
marbotty - January 28, 2012
And since those signings,
there is a growing list of players he has way underpaid for (4 last yr alone).
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
Yuni chief among those
marbotty - January 28, 2012
Fair enough
you clever, snarky bastard.
Bronzillo - January 28, 2012
We only made
3 off season free agent acquisitions last year at the MLB level. Francis was the only late one, typically Dayton is done by December 15th. Moore had a very good off season last year, his best to be sure.
But the inexplicable signing of Yuni, and the $4 million for Broxton when he does not have a clear role and is questionable health wise, are moves that definitely make you wonder. Perhaps he is Soria insurance. If everyone is healthy, I don’t want to see him as the setup guy, I want to see Holland, who quietly had one of the best middle relief/ setup seasons in Major League history last year, and should have been Royals rookie of the year.
Holland last year: 60 IP, 1.80 ERA, 228 ERA+, 0.933 WHIP, allowed 2 out of 33 inherited runners to score (6%). If you want to use FIP or xFIP, he had a better rate in both than Soria had in his best season.
The number of pitchers in MLB history who have had at least 45 innings, a 200 ERA+, a WHIP of less than 1.1 and allowed 10% or less of their inherited runners to score (with a minimum of 20 inherited runners): 6 including Holland.
KHAZAD - January 28, 2012
Of course
You can’t expect Holland to be that dominant this year-because no pitcher in history has had a season like that twice in a career.
KHAZAD - January 28, 2012
And why not?
How many years was Soria dominant before his slide last year.
I fully expect Holland to be dominant this year and very possibly be the closer by July.
DownUnderFan - January 28, 2012
broxton doesnt have a clear role?
he’s a relief pitcher
billybeingbilly - January 28, 2012
Clear Role
I think the insinuation with Broxton’s role was based on who he is replacing. Yost has committed that Soria will be the closer. Holland is pretty much guaranteed the set up role. So where does that leave Broxton. Pretty expensive security blanket it appears to me, especially with Herrara already waiting in the wings.
DownUnderFan - January 28, 2012
runs given up in the 7th inning hurt just as much as runs given up in the 6th
billybeingbilly - January 29, 2012
oops....6th should be 8th...or 9th
billybeingbilly - January 29, 2012
I think Holland is the 7th inning guy now
Or will be some sort of fireman. Broxton is clearly going to be the “Bridge” guy because he’s a PROVEN CLOSER who GETS RESULTS.
RoyalsRetro - January 30, 2012
Two proven closers?
Confusion in the bullpen.
Scott McKinney - January 30, 2012
When the Royals win 95 games this summer...
you have one of them save 40, the other save 40—and then they get 15 complete games (and 1000 innings) from the starters.
Kidding aside, I’ve always thought in a perfect world you’d want to have more than one ‘closer’ in case you have a number of close games/leads all in a row. It’s not how I’d prioritize my roster/payroll, but multiple closer options is not a horrible thing…unless of course you already had that with Holland.
setupunchtag - January 30, 2012
you mean besides
servicing your mm…
Crowncola - January 29, 2012
Reason for Broxton Signing
I think if you look deep enough you will find that Broxton has a history with Moore. Moore wanted him and was going to get him at any price.
Whether he will be worth that price or become another Wachter or JCruz will only be revealed when the Royals start the season.
IMO he is a big gamble and that extra $3M could have been much better spent on the Gordon contract.
DownUnderFan - January 28, 2012
They dated freshman year
RoyalsRetro - January 30, 2012
back when Broxton was only 262 lbs and DM wore his hair all the way down to the tops of his ears.
setupunchtag - January 30, 2012
okay that's funny and deserves a chuckle.
ChrisCEIT - January 30, 2012
On a slightly different position
Is Theriot at $1.5 million a better signing of Yuni?
buddyball - January 28, 2012
Marginally.
BabyBlues - January 29, 2012
Theriot is another meh middle infielder
But his career batting line is .282/.344/.353. Not far off what fans would hope for from Giavotella, right? But in his 5 full seasons’ worth of PAs (3231 total), the majority of them at SS, he has totaled 9.8 fWAR.
Just pointing out that Giavotella has an uphill battle to prove his value while playing a below average 2B. Theriot’s not all that exciting, but can really hope for much, if any, more from Giovatella?
thelaundry - January 30, 2012
I'd like to think so.
Dude only had SSS at the major league level, but it’d be nice to see him .300/.350/.400 (possibly SLG .425) for a few years. I think his MLEs support something close to this.
ChrisCEIT - January 30, 2012
At 4 million for one year,
if you trade Broxton at the deadline you also trade the remainder of his salary, which means you just paid ~2.5 million for whatever you get in return. Here’s a best case scenario – let’s say he pitches like Mike Adams did last year. Adams fetched Robbie Erlin and Joe Weiland from the Rangers at the deadline. Erlin’s K:BB ratio in 90+ innings at AA last season was around 8:1. Wieland had solid ERAs and low walk rate at AA last year too; I’d say that would be a nice haul for $2.5 million.
Worst case scenario: you pissed away $4 million. Eh, it’s not my money.
If you don’t sign Gordon long term because you’re, say a million or two per year apart on a 4 year contract and you just blew $4 million on Broxton (not mention nearly a million on Chris Getz), then, yeah, dumb move. But assuming they lock up Gordon, I think I’m fine with it.
Don’t forget that this contract followed the Papelbon insanity…didn’t look so bad after Papelbon.
jackie ballgame - January 28, 2012
It’s not my money either. But it’s money that went to an area where the team didn’t have a particular need instead of an area where they did have a need. They Royals spent a fair mount of money on either players they didn’t need or on mediocrity this offseason.
Scott McKinney - January 28, 2012
And that brings us to issue/concern #1 with GMDM
roster construction
Warden11 - January 28, 2012
Well, we will just have a 10 man bullpen and Yuni, that will fix everything.
BabyBlues - January 29, 2012
Chad Qualls to Philly, $1.15 mill
No worse than a 3.77 FIP the last five seasons. Maybe he wouldn’t want to come here, but I’m just saying.
RoyalsRetro - January 31, 2012
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