I feel like this entire off-season has been buildup to something that hasn't happened. A flurry of initial rumors and ideas, and then nothing. And then, oh hey, Yuni.
Greatest Farm System Ever.
Included today: Robinson Yambati, talk about the Indians' system, the Yankees mysterious austerity and the sexual revolution.
Baseball:
Grab Bag:
0 recs | 75 comments
Will Robinson Yambati be handing out beads at the Plaza Parade?
tiquanunderwear - January 6, 2012
Lesky's "Lingering Questions" from Pine Tar Press
My guesses:
A step forward with his hitting, but not a massive step. His defense remains the same: good tools, but the results suffer due to continued poor positioning from the Royals coaching staff.
He plays well again, but not at the extraordinary level of 2011.
No. I haven’t seen his power “developing.” He is a doubles hitter who will continue to some home runs, but that’s it.
If he had written “legitimate number three starter,” I probably would have gone along with it. But one of them pitching at the level of a one or two this year? No.
I think the bullpen is going to be very good again. I don’t have faith in Broxton or Mijares, but even without them, there’s a lot of talent and depth. There are many good arms to replace whoever underperforms.
Scott McKinney - January 6, 2012
Good points
Couple of thoughts though:
Butler’s still young even though he seems like he’s been around forever. He could easily add some power, but not a significant amount a la Jose Bautista. Adjustments at the plate could result in more power and more production however.
Also, honest question about Gordon: he’s got a tremendous amount of talent. What are the chances he remains near that good? What if this season is more of his true talent level? Obviously, statistically it is unlikely. But what if?
Yodazilla - January 6, 2012
He has a legit shot at developing more power. I’m just guessing against it. I’d be more willing to buy into it if his ISO had been going up every year. Instead, it’s been up and down.
It could certainly happen, just not the most likely outcome. I think the hitting is for real, but we probably can’t expect a .382 wOBA every year. I think his fielding is going to take a hit. Both UZR and Dewan’s plus/minus described his range as a negative, but his arm a huge positive, and that’s what gave him positive fielding numbers overall. While I think his range will probably improve a little (due to better jumps and routes just from more experience playing the position), I think the outs he gets with his arm will be fewer because fewer guys will be running on him. Yes, there is a value in disuading runners from even trying to run, but there’s more value in actually erasing the runner on the bases.
My half-assed gut speculation is something like:
Batting +25 runs
Base running +3.5
Fielding +5
Replacement +23
Positional -7
49.5 RAR
5.2 WAR
That would be damned good, just not quite as spectacular has his 6.9 fWAR 2011.
Scott McKinney - January 6, 2012
I'll take 5.2 WAR
And I agree; somewhere between 5 and 6 WAR is the most likely.
Fun fact: The last time someone put up over 5 WAR was Beltran in 2003 (6.8 WAR), and Beltran is the only other Royal to achieve the feat in the past decade. So even if Gordon declines to 5.2 WAR he’ll still be extremely productive by Royals standards.
Yodazilla - January 6, 2012
Maybe it's because I'm a Royals fan but that seems very optimistic.
Warden11 - January 6, 2012
It is optimistic
It is largely devoid of solid analysis and is significantly the product of the Gordon fanboy in me. It’s not unrealistic, but it is also probably unlikely.
Scott McKinney - January 6, 2012
best farm system ever is churning out #1s each year
who carres about #4s
Freneau - January 6, 2012
is there no joy in your heart?
averagegatsby - January 6, 2012
Heart, yes. Head, meh.
Scott McKinney - January 7, 2012
When I think of a conductor, the first image that pops into my head is Max from "The Money Pit"
He’s one of my favorite movie characters of all time:
http://www.anyclip.com/movies/the-money-pit/max-makes-a-move-on-anna/
http://www.anyclip.com/movies/the-money-pit/AyGv472Jthtmb/
I couldn’t find a clip of my favorite line of his in the movie: [after the symphony finishes a rehearsal] “The union forces me to allow you to go to lunch in spite of the way you’ve played. Those of you with consciences will not be able to eat. And those who consciences match your talents, go stuff yourselves I hope you choke!”
Sweep_the_Leg - January 6, 2012
Lousy overall movie
but that is a great bit.
The first conductor that came to mind was the Maestro from Seinfeld.
Gopherballs - January 6, 2012
I first thought of Shaq
RoyalsRetro - January 6, 2012
lol
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 7, 2012
The Money Pit is not a lousy movie.
You are a lousy movie-watcher.
Crooow - January 6, 2012
I think I have finally found a litmus test
for determining whose comments I can ignore without readingGopherballs - January 7, 2012
This is what I think of when I think of conductor
averagegatsby - January 6, 2012
glad that someone brought the Thomas vibe
Diesel is a prick
Nighthawk at the Diner - January 7, 2012
pretty sure that was from Shining Time Station
Carlin was a train whore.
Gopherballs - January 7, 2012
makes me nostalgic for my child's yute
ever see Theodore the Tugboat? Fucking refreshing. Pacing slower than a Jim Jarmusch movie, clear and concise moral tales. Canadian in origin I think. PBS rocked it for a few years back in the day. It bends Dora and other Nick-esque kids fare over the table and violates them in interesting ways.
Nighthawk at the Diner - January 7, 2012
As a french horn player
who has played for a fair amount of conductors in my life, I found the conductor’s piece fascinating. When I was in the Missouri All-State band a few years back, the conductor (an internationally known conductor from the D.C. area) told us all that his main purpose when he conducted was to inspire the musicians.
Any other musicians here?
Yodazilla - January 6, 2012
I played in orchestras (violin and viola) for 10 years
With the highlights being small and large ensemble awards. The closest I got to a compliment on my playing individually was that a guest conductor told me he liked the way I sat in my chair.
thelaundry - January 6, 2012
I played french horn for 5 years
tiquanunderwear - January 6, 2012
lol
Freddyn - January 6, 2012
I never got better once
tiquanunderwear - January 6, 2012
It's because your instrument of choice is stupid and broken
JKWard - January 6, 2012
No hating against the horn.
It is awesome but difficult.
Yodazilla - January 7, 2012
It was extremely difficult
tiquanunderwear - January 7, 2012
Any instrument you have to cram your fist into
To correct the pitch is a broken instrrument.
JKWard - January 8, 2012
There is no cramming
The ‘cramming’ is a technique called hand-muting. Which is difficult like everything else.
Don’t you like how it sounds? Like in Star Wars when Luke looks into the two suns?
Yodazilla - January 8, 2012
I have a music ed degree.
Majored in trupet and vocal at Central Methodist back in the 90’s.
mitchfreakingmaier! - January 6, 2012
I'm also biased because I've been lucky enough to play for different conductors all over the country and
even in Paris over the years. I’m still biased toward my Dad who happened to be a high school band director for 43 years.
mitchfreakingmaier! - January 6, 2012
that's really cool...
that you’re musical, got to play all over, and think that of your father.
setupunchtag - January 8, 2012
Interesting to revisit the '06 draft
Lots of really good first round talent. And the Rox got none of it. Hochevar isn’t terrible, but he probably isn’t in the top ten most valuable players from the draft. Funny we didn’t even consider Longoria because we had Gordon and Teahen at 3B – then draft one the very next year with the #2 overall pick.
RoyalsRetro - January 6, 2012
Keep in mind the Royals front office was in disarray
Baird had just been fired, Moore hadn’t started, and the draft was in the hands of, I think, Deric Ladnier, who got shown the door by Moore fairly early in Moore’s tenure.
Doesn’t change the fact that a lot of other teams did better than us, but they were probably not in that level of transition.
DarthYoshi - January 6, 2012
One could argue that the Royals' FO was in some degree of disarray
From the moment Schuerholz left until Dayton came in. In fact, just last night on the 610 Hot Stove show Dayton referred again to mistakes he made earlier in his tenure. So it could even be said, taking Dayton at his word, that the Royals have only had established, stable and cohesive front office leadership for only the most recent 2 or 3 of the last 20 plus years.
The disarray does not excuse the bad decisions the Royals made, but it does help to explain them in retrospect. But if Dayton feels confident and seasoned in his position now, is surrounded by trusted scouts and advisors, and has the resources he needs (at least to the extent ownership can provide it, a point of contention on this site and elsewhere) and can’t deliver on the promise of the Process, what will be the explanation then?
thelaundry - January 6, 2012
Explanation will be
Uh
Because go for it?
Yodazilla - January 7, 2012
Ooh, sorry. We were looking for "What is incompetence?"
thelaundry - January 7, 2012
I LOLZ at this! Good commenting!
Karte - January 7, 2012
DM admitted in an interview
That the Royals asked his advice and he recommended Hochevar over Andrew Miller because concerns with Miller’s injuries.
RoyalsRetro - January 6, 2012
So it all worked out for the best then, eh?
JKWard - January 6, 2012
"ERA estimators can figure future performance quite well — and SIERA, in particular"
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/
Somewhat long and pretty far down the rabbit hole, but a very interesting look into predictions (Marcels, etc.) and estimators (xFIP, SIERA, ERA, etc.) and their ability to predict future ERA.
My thought is that SIERA should be the best metric, but we don’t tend to pay enough attention to it – maybe b/c it’s new and relatively untested.
SagehenMacGyver47 - January 6, 2012
I agree. I think SIERA is best. We know both fWAR and bWAR have problems. SIERA, in my mind, does the best at evaluating performance.
WURoyal - January 6, 2012 via mobile
I think SIERA will start to catch on more
I plan on using it more in my evaluations of pitchers
Connor Moylan - January 6, 2012
Can I join the SIERA Club?
thelaundry - January 6, 2012
I nearly bought a GMC Sierra once
averagegatsby - January 6, 2012
I've always wanted to visit the Sierra Nevada
JKWard - January 6, 2012
I don't mind drinking Sierra Nevadas
Jeff Zimmerman - January 7, 2012
MMMM beer
spamiam79 - January 7, 2012 via Android app
Sierra Nevada is a bit hoppy for my taste
I’m slightly a beer snob ‘cause I live in Europe and get good beer normally. I see no reason to drink Bud or Coors. High Life in bottles is all right if they’re selling them cheap. PBR in cans is not worth paying for in a bar unless they’re $1.
My favorite American beers are Blue Moon and Shiner Bock. Lots of good lagers and ales. Yuengling’s a good buy. Sam Adams is pretty good. So is Fat Tire. Boulevard beers are always good. I don’t much like Abita. My favorite brewpub is the Free State.
Juancho - January 8, 2012
So you don't get Budweiser in the pubs?
Shocking. Do they even have pubs in Spain like they do in England?
Yodazilla - January 8, 2012
I spent time in Germany
and their Pilsners tend to run a little hoppy. I like a good IPA every now and again.
averagegatsby - January 8, 2012
I really enjoyed
Franziskaner Heffe-Weisse while over there.
Dr. van Strijcker - January 9, 2012
Drinking the Paulaner hef in Munich with a plate of schnitzel
Was a near religious experience.
thelaundry - January 9, 2012
I love Paulaner Hef
Schneider & Sohn do the hell out of their beer, too. Aventinus, their weizenbock, is maybe my favorite beer.
Old Man Duggan - January 9, 2012
All wheat beers kick ass
Franziskaner is widely available in Spain in moderate quantities. So’s Paulaner. The Belgian guy who runs the bar on the corner has Stella Artois, Hoegaarden, Leffe Double, and Chimay on tap. You can spend too much money in there quite easily.
Juancho - January 9, 2012
They don't exactly have pubs but they have neighborhood bars
where the folks come down for a beer, an espresso, or this foul locally manufactured thing called Gin Giró that is supposed to be mixed with Coke, for best results.
Juancho - January 9, 2012
I do not like wheat beers at all...
But I had a Lowenbrau Weizenbock whilst there last time, and it was AMAZING, incredible beer.
averagegatsby - January 9, 2012
Uh... So the Padres just gave the Cubs Rizzo...
They are definitely winning the Adrian Gonzalez trade now.
averagegatsby - January 6, 2012
I think Josh Byrnes
Is having a romantic relationship with Theo Epstein
RoyalsRetro - January 7, 2012
Is the Hutch Award
for fat guys who never hit home runs.
Dadunca - January 6, 2012
This offseason kind of sucks
It started off with a bang (trading for Sanchez and signing Broxton), but then the true Dayton showed up and signed Yuni. I would like to see an ace brought in. There’s no true ace on this pitching staff. Our lineup is almost ready to compete. You must account for some Sophomore slumps going on, but 2013 is a real possibility for competing. I’d love to see a trade that brought in a stud pitcher that is under team control for 2-3 years, at least. We have the talent in the minors to make that happen, but I don’t know if I trust Dayton to do it. We need a true pitching stud, not his version of one. Let’s hope he’s competent to pull one of these available guys out without completely depleting our system.
royaldaddy - January 7, 2012
How's little MITCH doing?
How’s his life after the summer camp?
Yamfun Cheng Kamfun - January 7, 2012
does anyone think a trade for a legitimate ace is possible using
only players from the 40 man roster? just as a fun exercise.
What package would you put together using only the current 40 man roster players to snag a Shields or King Felix type ace?
I would trade Soria, CRob, Jeffress, and Arguelles, for Shields, and TB call within then next 30 minutes i’d throw in Chris Getz as a free gift.
For King Felix, i’d give up Soria, Crow, Dyson, and Paulino. maybe throw in Getz if i was in a good mood.
DickHowser4ever - January 7, 2012
I can't see either team making either of those deals
King Felix would require Hosmer and probably more.
averagegatsby - January 7, 2012
i'd be willing to throw in more for King Felix, but NOT Hos, Perez, Gordon, or Moose.
i’d consider Butler, but would not give up too much more than BB in the trade, and i’d consider Duffy, but again would not give up much more in the package.
i trade Duffy, Mendoza (or Teaford), and one or two lower level minor leaguers for Felix
DickHowser4ever - January 7, 2012
And Felix is not cheap either
His contract looks pretty good against the market, but it’s still 3 years $58 million. If you’re willing to spend that much on one SP, why not sign a FA and keep the prospects?
thelaundry - January 7, 2012
good point
why not go after E Jackson for something like 3yrs/$36 million and keep the young talent. Jackson isn’t as good as King Felix, but he would potentially be cheaper and as you mentioned we keep our current young talent. now its just a matter of whether Edwin would accept a 3 year deal or not.
DickHowser4ever - January 7, 2012
At this point I'd rather hold on to the prospects and the money
According to the Royals, Hochevar, Sanchez and Chen are in the rotation. A major FA or trade acquisition would also be a lock. So who gets left out, Paulino or Duffy? Depth is good, but I think the Royals would be wise to give those two a full season of starts to see if they can be consistently effective.
thelaundry - January 7, 2012
If we could get Jackson
at 3/$36 million I would jump on it. I don’t think that’s realistic.
Juancho - January 8, 2012
The Mariners would require AT LEAST two of those four players that you consider untouchable.
Probably two of those guys plus a couple minor league guys. Felix is one of the very top arms in the game and is only entering his age 26 season. Seattle ain’t parting with him for Eric Hosmer and some A ball arms.
I won’t even dignify including Mendoza in that package with a response. Mendoza is a complete non-prospect.
EspeciallyK - January 7, 2012
Agreed
Felix requires Hosmer and Moose, or one of them plus Wil Myers and probably Monty or Duffy.
RoyalsRetro - January 7, 2012
Yerp
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 7, 2012
And, Once We
Sell the farm for him, Tommy John and labrum surgery.
philofthenorth - January 8, 2012
They wouldn't take that
I don’t think Felix is enough to push the team over the edge.
Juancho - January 9, 2012
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