Danny Duffy had the honor of being the first of the Royals highly-touted left-handed pitching prospects to pitch in the big leagues. The southpaw, however, struggled in his first taste of the majors:
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | K% | BB% | BABIP | WAR |
| 105.1 | 5.64 | 4.82 | 4.53 | 4.46 | 18.4% | 10.8% | .329 | 0.6 |
While Duffy probably did not pitch as poorly as his 5.64 ERA indicates, a SIERA around 4.46 certainly can be improved upon. Part of Duffy's problems are related to his high BABIP. Duffy's BABIP of .329 is high and he likely had some bad luck last season, but Duffy could help himself by locating his pitches better. The lefty consistently locates his changeup and curveball up in the strike zone, which is an especially serious problem with changeups. Duffy pitching high in the zone with his offspeed stuff likely factored in to his BABIP problems. His BABIP on flyballs was .304 last season, while the league average BABIP on flyballs is around .210. These numbers are even more exaggerated when looking at his offspeed pitches; hitters had a .385 BABIP on flyballs from against his curveball and a .571 BABIP on flyballs against his changeup.
Although there are sample size issues, since Duffy only threw 105 innings, I believe his BABIP on flyballs are so exaggerated that they are likely not caused by luck alone. Looking at his Pitch F/X data only furthers my belief that Duffy is causing some of his own BABIP problems. I will look at his changeup location problems in this article, and plan on writing about his curveball location problems later in the week. After the jump, I will break down his Pitch F/X heat maps for his changeup, explain why it is problematic, and compare it to Ricky Romero's Pitch F/X heat maps.
Duffy located the majority of his changeups over the heart of the plate. Unless hitters are completely fooled by the change in speed, they will be able to tee off against those pitches. The first article I linked above, called "Slicing and Dicing the Strike Zone by Pitch," shows the optimal vertical location for a changeup. The graph below is taken from the article:
For a changeup to reach it's maximum effectiveness, it needs to be thrown 23.2 inches from the ground at the very bottom of the strike zone. The majority of Duffy's changeups appear to be crossing in between the 30-35 inch mark, where the changeup is an ineffective pitch. Fellow lefty Ricky Romero owns one of the most effective changeups in the league and his heat maps helps explain why (via Fangraphs).
Romero normally locates his changeup low in the strike zone, and feels comfortable missing low and out of the strike zone. He also consistently throws his changeup on the outside part of the zone, while Duffy's were located all over the plate. Although Duffy will likely never throw a changeup as well as Romero does, he will need to pitch low and outside like Romero for it to be a useful pitch.
I have no idea why Duffy locates his changeup high in the strike zone; there are potentially numerous mechanical, grip and release point problems that could factor in. I do believe that Duffy will need to locate his changeup lower and further outside in the strike zone to improve as a major league pitcher.
10 recs | 50 comments
nice analysis. i hope Duffy and the Royals coaching staff are using this info too.
DickHowser4ever - January 9, 2012
I imagine they are
It’s not terribly groundbreaking that pitching offspeed high = hit hard, but it is always nice to actually have the data to back up your assumptions
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012
is there any data out there to suggest that Change-ups are harder for Lefties to throw than for Righties
my high school and college pitching coaches both had that opinion, and i was wondering if it was true or just an old pitching coaches tale.
DickHowser4ever - January 9, 2012
It's an old wives tale
RHPs don’t throw the change as much because you usually don’t throw it to the left side of the plate because most of the time it has armside run and RHHs kill that when you try to throw it outside and miss.
So, using the wives tale, LHPs have better CH because they throw them more often to RHHs would be correct. But because you are a LHP doesn’t make you have a better CH.
306008 - January 9, 2012
That "run value" graph is awesome
cmkeller - January 9, 2012
That graph is awesome
The Hardball Times has some seriously impressive articles in their archive
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Good job.
It reminds of this quote:
If I was going to miss, I was going to miss low. – Jeff Montgomery
Jeff Zimmerman - January 9, 2012
Great analysis
I wish Pitch f/x had more comparative data. The data above shows that Duffy appears to be leaving his changeup too high up in the strike zone. But I wish there were data out there which quantified this. (and maybe there is, but I just don’t know it) What percentage of his changeups are in the upper half of the strike zone? Or what percentage of his changeups were more than X inches from the sweet spot described above? How does that compare to league average? I don’t think I’ve seen this kind of data from Pitch f/x analysis. Is it hard to aggregate data like that?
Scott McKinney - January 9, 2012
Not hard, but a little time consuming
Someone can knock themselves later:
http://www.joelefkowitz.com/pitch.php
Jeff Zimmerman - January 9, 2012
I probably haven’t seen enough Pitch f/x analysis to know, but do people do that kind of analysis where they quantify complicated data like pitch location, movement, etc. and then compare it to league average? I think Pitch f/x analysis is very useful but I think in order to evaluate something, you need to be able to compare it to something like a norm or average.
Scott McKinney - January 9, 2012
Seems like Duffy is a huge Tebow fan
http://twitter.com/#!/teachmehw2duffy
Jeff Zimmerman - January 9, 2012
Who isn't?Scott McKinney - January 9, 2012
sweet twitter handle douche
it shouldnt be surprising that he’s a tebow fan though…isnt duffy supposed to be highly religious as well? i feel like people who are very christian would be less annoyed by his outward christianity that those who are not.
billybeingbilly - January 9, 2012
Tebow doesn't bother me at all.
It is the Tebow fans that drive me nuts.
Jeff Zimmerman - January 9, 2012
I have found having a healthy relationship with Tebow
since I have stopped watching ESPN. I even found myself pulling for him last night. I just have to ignore the constant over analysis going on.
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012 via mobile
It's weird how he sometimes throws well, but often throws like a mediocre HS quarterback
Against the Chiefs, he couldn’t manage to get the ball anywhere near his intended receiver, or even throw a spiral (no hyperbole there). Against the Steelers, he was throwing decent looking passes and hitting receivers left and right.
Scott McKinney - January 9, 2012
I think Tebow reminded everyone that he can throw a pretty good deep ball
especially when he is on the run. The Chiefs did a good job of not getting beat deep and forcing Tebow to make intermediate throws, where he has no consistency. At least, that’s what I saw.
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012
I sometimes wonder if he's really right handed
Seriously.
He did look really good yesterday though. His throws looked good.
RoyalsRetro - January 9, 2012
even yesterday though, i saw at least two balls that were closer to end over end than to being spirals
billybeingbilly - January 9, 2012
His Upside Is
Bobby Douglass, and that ain’t good.
philofthenorth - January 9, 2012
I actually made that joke while watching the game last week.
Jesus told him not to throw with his right hand, so he doesn’t.
(Just to be clear, I have no problem with Christianity. I just have a problem with people who beat everyone over the head with their beliefs without being asked to.)
Old Man Duggan - January 9, 2012
I'm left handed but my handwriting is so bad that
I’ve had several people suggest that I might be right handed but not know it.
KeepItCopacetic - January 9, 2012
I watch ESPN 90% less than I used to, and am much happier for it. Their impact on sports, overall, has not been good.
Rufus R. Jones - January 9, 2012
I virtually never watch ESPN.
Aside from maybe three or four of those documentaries or the occasional sporting event (and I can’t emphasize ‘occasional’ enough), I don’t watch. Their analysis is sorely lacking. They only cover large market teams, except on NFL recap programming, and being a Chiefs fan has made me able to handle only a Chiefs game each week, even when they’re good.
Old Man Duggan - January 9, 2012
yes to both of those
It was just a coincidence that I don’t have it, but now that it’s gone I don’t want it back.
SagehenMacGyver47 - January 9, 2012
that is complete horseshit…pretty much every game in every sport is now on tv…in large part due to espn proving how popular sports were
billybeingbilly - January 9, 2012
Ok, then bbb
I actually consider that topic, and your contention, to be a pretty interesting conversation. But considering your obvious inability to conduct civil discourse, I think I’ll bail out on this one.
Rufus R. Jones - January 9, 2012 via mobile
there's not really a conversation to be had
your point was wrong and there’s no denying it. you can hate the current state of their analysis all you want….everyone does. but to deny their positive impact on sports is absurd
billybeingbilly - January 10, 2012
ESPN's impact on sports has been broad, much of it good and much of it bad
Yes, there is a conversation to be had. You are simplifying the issue to merely how many games are broadcast. Yes, that is a big positive. No, that’s not the end of the issue. Your assertion that the number of games broadcast proves that ESPN’s impact on sports has been clearly obvious and that anything else is absurd is overly simplistic to say the very least. There’s a lot more to it.
I probably agree with your conclusion that ESPN’s impact on sports has been a net positive, but there’s a lot going on there. Thousands of words could easily be written discussing this. Writing it off as a non-issue because the answer is so clear is pretty silly.
Scott McKinney - January 10, 2012
I highly recommend the ESPN oral history
“Those Guys Have All the Fun”. No matter how you feel about the mothership it’s an interesting read. In the beginning, they had to prove that 24 hour cable sports was viable and profitable. Now they have to find a way to keep up viewership and profits with more competition and higher rights fees, both of which were contributed to by ESPN itself. They also tried to keep sports and sports highlights and the ESPN brand the main attractions over on air talent, but now they fill much of the time on their networks on personalities debating sports rather than the games themselves.
thelaundry - January 10, 2012
And These Are
Their highest rated shows, last I heard. I’m watching Le Batard’s show right now. I’ve always liked him.
philofthenorth - January 11, 2012
I’m a Christian, and have no problem with Tebow himself. But I do get irritated with the Tebow mania. I know some of it is tongue in cheek, but some of it is serious.
I mean in college he was being deified by everyone. Media, fans, all that. Announcers would say that spending five minutes with him was life changing. Meanwhile, other talented quarterbacks like Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, also devout Christians, didn’t get the same level of praise for that as he did.
NotAHippie - January 9, 2012
or Drew Brees
who also wrote a book.
Jeff Zimmerman - January 9, 2012
The answer to your question: He has McClure mechanics and struggles to stay on top of his pitches. You have to throw downhill (Scott, MLB hitters hit .224 from 3 inches above their knees and below regardless of location on the plate) and pitch in the bottom of the zone. When Duffy “leaks” as much as he does and rushes through his release leaving the release point high, the ball is high and gets crushed…
… he’ll be much better now that McClure is gone. Don’t forget, most of McClure’s pitchers had this problem.
306008 - January 9, 2012
Is Eiland going to focus on making Royals pitchers "throw downhill"?
Has he or anyone else in the Royals organization talked about there being a systemic problem with pitcher mechanics that can now be addressed?
Did McClure change Duffy’s mechanics when he got to the majors? I have a strong feeling he was using the same mechanics in KC that he’d used in the minors. And despite your assumption to the contrary, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that the major league pitching coach determines the mechanics of minor league pitchers.
I’m not saying Duffy doesn’t have a problem with his mechanics. But I do have a problem with the notion that the Royals pitching problems were mostly because of their pitching coach and with him gone, suddenly the Royals pitchers are going to be much better. While that is possible, I think jumping to that conclusion is a stretch.
Scott McKinney - January 9, 2012
I was thinking about making a statement about throwing downhill
but I really do not know what it means,. I know I heard coaches tell pitchers all the time they needed to throw downhill. Is there a good article that will explain this to me?
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012
Seems like Duffy leaves all his pitches up in the zone.
RoyalsRetro - January 9, 2012
That's What I
Saw, particularly the off speed pitches. I cringed every time he spun a curve over the plate above the belt. MLBers will murder that pitch.
philofthenorth - January 9, 2012
That is Wednesday's article
He left a lot of curveballs over the plate as well
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012
HR's are removed from BABIP, correct?
I wonder if this is fairly consistent among Royals pitchers because we know the range of the outfielders last year was not very good. That could definitely be a factor in this.
Warden11 - January 9, 2012
I would think a .571 BAPIP against changeups would mean that they were hit hard.
BabyBlues - January 9, 2012
I did not really think about that, I am glad you did
BABIP on Flyballs
Jeff Francis – .225
Luke Hochevar – .143
Bruce Chen – .217
Felipe Paulino – .178
Kyle Davies – .212
If the limited range of our outfield is having an effect, it is hard to discern that from those BABIP in play numbers. The problem seems to be with Duffy
Connor Moylan - January 9, 2012
Interesting.
Warden11 - January 9, 2012
anyone have numbers on Duffys foul ball rates and # of foul balls per batter
and how these might compare to league average. my guess is they were much higher than league average.
seem to remember him having a lot of 8, 10, 12 pitch at bats last year with batters fouling off pitch after pitch once he got to 2 strikes in the count. It appeared he needed to develop an ‘out’ pitch. of course a consistent change up low in the zone would probably make a good out pitch.
DickHowser4ever - January 9, 2012
I noticed the same thing
Would also be curious to see if it was, indeed, a higher-than-normal amount.
Rufus R. Jones - January 9, 2012
I had the same experience...
…but some of that might be selective memory.
Duffy’s inability to get deep into games was established early on. As a result, every time he had to throw an extra pitch kind of felt like a little dagger in the heart. So maybe I just remember all those foul balls because they each made me cringe.
Or maybe there really were a ton of 10-12 pitch at-bats… and that’s why he never got deep into any games. That actually seems like the more probable explanation.
kcemigre - January 9, 2012
I remember a ton of them as well.
Just seemed like he could never finish guys off.
Warden11 - January 10, 2012
He throws a ton of pitches
Any pitcher will with high K and BB numbers.
He is almost a clone of Brandon Morrow and Max Scherzer.
Jeff Zimmerman - January 10, 2012
I wonder
Does he have trouble finishing guys off (RHH, anyway) b/c his changeup tends to get too much of the strikezone?
Or does he have to throw his changeup in the strikezone b/c he’s behind (or not ahead) of the count?
(Or neither)
But if the count is 2-0, 2-1, or 2-2 a lot, I imagine he has a tough time trusting his changeup to throw it low and on the corner, risking a really unfavorable count.
SagehenMacGyver47 - January 10, 2012
very well done
appreciate the graphical representation and the mixing of scouting info with the stats…
Home Run Tony Cogan - January 9, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Royals Review to post a comment.