Jeff Gross - Getty Images
Man, can you ever just throw 6 innings like Timmy and Matty. They had to wake me up from my nap. Heck, even girly-boy Madison can throw more innings.
Kansas City's starters were not able to throw late into games last year. They were tied for 12th in the AL with Boston at 5.8 IP/GS (Baltimore was worst at 5.4). Tampa on the other hand averaged 6.5 IP/GS. This difference is huge when looked at over the course of a season. With the average AL game going 8.9 innings, Kansas City will would need their bullpen to throw 3.1 innings and the Rays only 2.3. Over the course of the season, this difference works out to be a difference of 130 innings or over 14 full games.
To put it another way, the bullpen would need to throw 502.2 innings. With a 7 pitcher bullpen, that works at to ~72 IP per pitcher. With a 8 person bullpen, it works out to ~63 IP. Dave Eiland better have the bullpen ready to go.
Going into 2012, the situation doesn't look to be any better than last year, especially with the addition of Jonathan Sanchez. Here is a look at the IP/GS for the most likely starters and some other samples for reference:
| 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |||||||
| Name | IP | GS | IP/GS | IP | GS | IP/GS | IP | GS | IP/GS |
| Bruce Chen | 155 | 25 | 6.2 | 131 | 23 | 5.7 | 48 | 9 | 5.3 |
| Luke Hochevar | 198 | 31 | 6.4 | 100 | 17 | 5.9 | 143 | 25 | 5.7 |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 101.3 | 19 | 5.3 | 193 | 33 | 5.8 | 159.3 | 29 | 5.5 |
| Felipe Paulino | 120.3 | 20 | 6.0 | 86 | 14 | 6.1 | 87 | 17 | 5.1 |
| Danny Duffy | 105.3 | 20 | 5.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Kansas City | 943 | 162 | 5.8 | 949 | 162 | 5.9 | 949 | 162 | 5.9 |
| AL | 13875.7 | 2268 | 6.1 | 13730.7 | 2268 | 6.1 | 13189.7 | 2270 | 5.8 |
| ZacKKKKKKKK | 171.7 | 28 | 6.1 | 220 | 33 | 6.7 | 229.3 | 33 | 6.9 |
Sanchez has not averaged throwing 6 innings in the NL in any season over the last 3 years, not alone in the AL. I think he is going to be a frustrating pitcher to watch when he is constantly pulled before the end of the 6th inning.
By using a weighted average of the 5 pitcher's previous 3 season and assuming they will start all 162 games (not going to happen), the average IP/GS works out to be 5.8. Just the same as last year. This season, Fans again should be ready to see this scene quite a bit early on during the game:
1 recs | 47 comments
Super Bullpen FTW
Scott McKinney - February 16, 2012
I see lots of 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K lines in the near future
Right here is the downside to being one of the league leaders in both K rate and BB rate. Duffy and Sanchez need to be split up in the rotations just to give the bullpen a little extra rest.
Blake Wood might suddenly take a more important role in the bullpen, as he is the leading candidate to be the bridge guy to take over in the 6th (or 5th) and go an inning plus in order to get the ball to Holland and Broxton. Wood is not good enough to pitch consistently in high leverage situations, but he is not bad in mid-leverage situations as he can miss some bats, induce groundballs, and hold his own against lefties so he can go longer than a few hitters at a time.
Gopherballs - February 16, 2012
I feel like that exact...
…pitching line is what we saw from Duffy all last year. Clearly the powers that be are expecting improvement from him at least, or else they wouldn’t have added Duffy Redux to the rotation.- TL
timlacy - February 16, 2012
Duffy's 2011 pitching line would need to knock off 1/3 IP and 1 K
Gopherballs - February 16, 2012
I Expect Duffy
To improve. If he doesn’t, he needs to be replaced.
philofthenorth - February 16, 2012
Duffy's minor league track records suggest he should improve his walk rate somewhat
If not, he should make a pretty good reliever
Gopherballs - February 16, 2012
@@@@ man Bruce Chen sucks!!!! @@@@
DickHowser4ever - February 16, 2012
but has more wins in the last two years than any other royals pitcher
but you probably don’t like winning
let’s have those huge stats
Chiefshero - February 16, 2012
philofthenorth - February 17, 2012
There goes the neighborhood
thelaundry - February 17, 2012
i like winning as much as Mr. Sheen does, but a win with Chen on the mound is not 100% do to Chen
He gets credit for pitching well and helping to keep the team in the game, but credit must also go to the offense for scoring runs, and the defense for making plays.
IMO that’s why judging a pitchers value based on number of ‘wins’ is not a great way to do things.
DickHowser4ever - February 17, 2012
yes but a pitcher needs intangibles
how he can become cohesive or help the rest of the team
otherwise we have paulino who has good stats but the rest of the team looks like they don’t give a shit
Chiefshero - February 18, 2012
Jump Ball!
philofthenorth - February 19, 2012
Looking at pitcher's innings based on NL stats can be misleading...
Think about it. Come the 6th inning, the pitcher may be up for the 2nd or even 3rd time. In a close game, they’re going to get pulled. If the game is out of hand, they’re going to get pulled.
To judge Sanchez purely based on NL innings could be very misleading.
I don’t disagree that the bullpen is going to be strained (again!) this year, but I think we’ll actually see that number closer to 6-6.2 innings based upon who is in the rotation. And if not, I think the bullpen is good enough to bridge (would like to see someone other than Wood as a long reliever… but I’ve seen worse — I live in DC, so think Nationals…) to get to Holland/Broxton/Soria-cutioner.
KC in DC - February 16, 2012
average NL starter lasted 6.0 IP last year
average AL starter lasted 6.1 IP
Unless Crow is not being converted into a starter, there is not really a better alternative than Wood. Coleman is a ROOGY, so he should not face more than a few batters at a time except in low leverage situations (and is better used for spotting against good right-handed hitters in mid to high leverage situations), and Wood is a step above the other candidates.
Gopherballs - February 16, 2012
Herrera?
Bronzillo - February 16, 2012
Probably a good choice, but he's very unlikely to make the 25-man roster
Maybe when he eventually makes it to KC.
Scott McKinney - February 17, 2012
So not that many "quality starts"?
RoyalsRetro - February 16, 2012
Would have loved the Royals to pick up a solid "innings eater"
if they weren’t going to get a front of the rotation type. Somebody available like Guthrie or Brett Myers who regularly go deep into games. They provide additional value with the benefit of a well rested pen, cost little to acquire and are not long term commitments.
ElChupanibre - February 16, 2012
guthrie who costs $9 million and two decent major league pieces to acquire?
billybeingbilly - February 16, 2012
I still don't get that trade from either side.
Old Man Duggan - February 16, 2012
baltimore saved a bunch of money...
and allegedly they received no offers for guthrie that involved younger players or prospects…so, if thats true, they were really left with no choice.
billybeingbilly - February 16, 2012
baltimore didn't save any money
Hammel and Lindstrom cost 8.55MM.
ElChupanibre - February 16, 2012
eww...i thought they were cheaper than that....
nm then…still makes no sense for either team
billybeingbilly - February 16, 2012
Baltimore got two roster spots filled isntead of one
Both those guys are controlled for two years instead of one. I thought it was a fine move for them, they’re just in a terrible situation residing in the AL East.
BeauJackson - February 16, 2012
We did
RoyalsRetro - February 16, 2012
I imagine that not having to hit
Will increase Sanchez’s IP per start ratio.
cmkeller - February 16, 2012
not really -- the difference in IP/GS between the AL and NL is only 0.1
Gopherballs - February 16, 2012
That might not tell the whole story
Off the top of my head, I can think of a few more factors that would impact a starter’s IP in the AL vs NL:
Reasons to think Sanchez might average more innings with Royals:
-won’t be pulled for a pinch hitter
-AL Central weaker than NL West
Reasons to think Sanchez might average fewer innings:
won’t face pitchers-the AL seems better, but it seems to me that a lot of the edge is in pitching now)-AL hitters stronger than NL hitters overall? (Not really sure
kcdc1 - February 16, 2012
Those weren’t supposed to be striked out and SB Nation still doesn’t allow editing
kcdc1 - February 16, 2012
im kinda glad that there's no editing allowed...
and what does everyone do that accidentally strikes through shit…ive never had it happen to me
billybeingbilly - February 16, 2012
-strikethrough-, 2 negative signs next to letters.
strikethroughJeff Zimmerman - February 16, 2012
i c
billybeingbilly - February 16, 2012
The NL West may be stronger overall - even that's a question.
But NL West offenses are quite a bit worse, aside from the DH.
hawkinscm87 - February 16, 2012
Sanchez was at 5.3 IP/GS last year
His team was 6.2 IP/GS against the same competition and under the same DH rules.
The NL West was 6.1 IP/GS.
The AL Central was 6.0 IP/GS.
I am not seeing any reason why the switch in league by itself would suggest any real increase (or decrease) in his innings pitched per start.
NL pitchers sometimes get pulled for a pinch hitter, but they sometimes get left in to face an extra batter or two when the pitcher is due up next inning. I would think they pretty much cancel each other out.
Gopherballs - February 16, 2012
So all Ned needs is Collins and then maybe 1-2 more guys to throw the other 2.2 innings? Looks like we’ll have plenty of space on the roster for pinch hitters and runners.
Sweep_the_Leg - February 16, 2012
Don't forget about Hochevar
Hochevar has improved his IP/game the last three years.
2009: 5.7
2010: 5.9
2011: 6.4
People get annoyed at Hochevar’s inability to live up to his draft pick, but he has gotten steadily better. Take a look at his xFIP too:
2009: 4.29
2010: 4.09
2011: 4.05
I really think that Hochevar will be a 200 IP, low 4 ERA workhorse for the Royals next year. Especially if the new pitching coach realizes that the guy can be a very good strikeout pitcher.
Yodazilla - February 16, 2012
and if he learns to pitch better out of the stretch.
DickHowser4ever - February 17, 2012
The Slide Step
Is garbage. Just get the batter out.
philofthenorth - February 17, 2012
And don't take deep breaths
[/Lee Judge]
Scott McKinney - February 17, 2012
The SP situ is much better than last year
There are NO certain boobs there that realistically have a shot at the starting 5, Like Kyle Davies….
ChosenOneK - February 17, 2012
…and Sean O Sullivan…
ChosenOneK - February 17, 2012
Omaha Needs Pitchers
philofthenorth - February 17, 2012
Sean is out of options, so Omaha is out of luck.
Or in luck.
BabyBlues - February 17, 2012
He Could Clear
Waivers, I’d imagine.
philofthenorth - February 18, 2012
maybe sully can work with a staff of Montgomerry, SOS, Adcock, Mazzaro, and Mendoza..
ChosenOneK - February 17, 2012
meant to reply there, phil…
ChosenOneK - February 17, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Royals Review to post a comment.