So everything else aside, how will he play?
Relevant numbers:
Thanks to a) a bounceback season b) endless playing time and c) the relative decline in offense since the middle of the last decade, 2011 was Francoeur's most valuable season at the plate of his career. Per at bat, only his 70 games in 2005 (.370 wOBA) were better. The truth is, from 50,000 feet he doesn't really seem to have gotten more than marginally more patient, as his 5.6% walk rate was actually down from many of his prior seasons and right in line with where he's always been, but the power that he flashed early in his career returned. Line drives were slightly up and his speed score -- perhaps slimming down helped -- improved.
The splits reveal a familiar Francoeur story. He crushed left-handed pitching, posting a .570 SLG and a .934 OPS against southpaws in 168 PAs. Against righties, he wasn't as good, but he wasn't terrible either, at .279/.318/.445. His career OBP/SLG against righties, including 2011, is .300/.410. This is, overall, encouraging, because he hit better against both handed-pitchers, while maintaining his general trend as a hitter.
With his low walk numbers, Francoeur's a guy who needs to hit .280 something to help you. Much lower, and we're inching close to simply untenable OBP numbers. Though again, the general decline in offense thanks to the post-steroid era the self-fulfilling prophecy of every team playing their own Alcides Escobar at two positions has helped ease the pain.
Like fellow Royal outfielder Alex Gordon, Francoeur was able to parlay acceptable range with a strong arm into a useful defensive package. And like Gordon, I like the overall product, but feel that it is also a few ticks shy of sliding down into neutral or even negative category. But that might not happen in 2012.
So has Francoeur hit a new level as a hitter? Could he hit even better in 2012? He'll be 28 next season, so we can't rule it out. Perhaps it's merely something I've talked myself into, but I can't help but feeling Francoeur has more room to backslide than he has room to grow. A career year would feature the almost by necessity and axiomatic high/lucky BABIP and the additional power. So that gets us up to something like .300/.340/.500? Maybe a bit more. After last season, even a Francoeur agnostic would have to admit that could happen. The flip side is what was mentioned above, the BA falls a bit, and Francoeur gets himself out a few extra times trying to produce the doubles he's missed, and we end up in that .260/.310/.410 zone. This is very un-saber of me, but Francoeur strikes me as a player who really needs to have a good April. You want Francoeur playing confidently as opposed to chasing lost hits up there. But yikes, you dumb writer, isn't that really everyone?
So, Francoeur in 2012...
0 recs | 70 comments
I don't think his play from last year is sustainable
I think he can still be an slightly above average 5 hitter and RF. But that Walk Rate is troubling and if it lowers even more he’s going to see everything go back down.
tiquanunderwear - February 20, 2012
278/322/455...halfway between his career numbers and his 2011 numbers....
sounds about right to me…and very acceptable given his solid defense
billybeingbilly - February 20, 2012
I agree with your projection.
I imagine he will be around 2.2-2.5 WAR, making him a very average RF. All things considered, I could live with that.
Connor Moylan - February 20, 2012 via mobile
pessimism is much more fun
I think 2.25 WAR would be his ceiling. Like Freneau said, I feel he has much more room to fall than to improve.
mmiller9 - February 20, 2012
why would his ceiling be significantly lower than his performance last year....
he’s smack dab at the peak of the aging curve
billybeingbilly - February 21, 2012
He’s right around the peak of the hitting aging curve. He’s at least a couple years past the peak of the WAR aging curve.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
After having seen the projections, I'll take the under
Weighted average of Pecota, Zips and Cairo = .270/.313/.422. With significantly fewer base runners thrown out and certainly not a step faster, I see him as a below average player in 2012.
Scott McKinney - February 20, 2012
I'm not sure the projection systems will be accurate for Francoeur
He’s a bit of an odd case, and projection systems don’t really project well for odd cases. Maybe it’s just optimism speaking here, but Francoeur showed hitting skills early in his career and last year—I think it is entirely possible that this is the real Francoeur. But I guess we’ll see come April.
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
Certainly he may well do much better or much worse than his projections. Certainly most of his career has been feast or famine. I don’t know that there is good reason to expect the “feast” to be the real Francoeur.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
I don't even expect him to be 'feast'
I just expect solid performance. 2.5 WAR or so.
However, I think if he isn’t solid he will be legitimately bad. So…there’s that.
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
I'm Not Too
Worried about 2012; it’s 2013 that could be a killer.
philofthenorth - February 20, 2012
i dont see much reason to be more concerned about him falling off a cliff in 2013 moreso than 2012....
it’s not like he’ll be old…and he’ll be playing for another big contract
billybeingbilly - February 20, 2012
He’ll be playing for another big contract, unless Moore has already extended him, which is quite possible.
Scott McKinney - February 20, 2012
GAH!
Nighthawk at the Diner - February 20, 2012
If they can't extend Gordon, this becomes more and more possible/likely
Scott McKinney - February 20, 2012
please dont talk about this until it happens....
dealing with the reality of it is one thing, having to dread the possibility for 2 years is another
billybeingbilly - February 21, 2012
When Dayton Moore is your favorite team’s GM, dreading the real possibility that he’ll do this or that stupid thing just comes with the territory.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
Stupid Territory; Better
Band name ot album title? Discuss.
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
good question.
I’ll say better album title. Just strikes me that way. “Nicely packed in Panties,” or ’Mood Elevators also Go Down". Two titles from friends who fuck around playing band have kicked around for album titles.
Nighthawk at the Diner - February 21, 2012
I like it as an album name for my dream band
The Urine Samples
mitchfreakingmaier! - February 21, 2012
Dayton Moore unauthorized biography title
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
It will take on a certain inevitability, just like KC signing Freedom Fries in the first place
it’s a sad fucking destiny. The realization hit me like a 9-3 put out the second I read it.
Nighthawk at the Diner - February 21, 2012
NY, are you reading the tea leaves and getting skeptical of a Gordo extension?
IIRC, you thought it prob made sense for both sides to sit tight?
Nighthawk at the Diner - February 21, 2012
I really can only guess as to whether the Gordon extension will happen. Certainly that it didn’t get done before Gordon’s arbitration settlement isn’t a good sign, but that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily unlikely to happen. I’m definitely less optimistic than I was a month ago. Right now, I guess I’d put it at 50/50, but none of us really has any idea.
It makes sense for the Royals to extend him right now, but only if they can get a price that makes sense. 4/40 would work nicely for me. Who knows how high they’re willing to go. What is in Gordon’s best interest depends on whether he wants surety and security for the next approx. 4 years, or whether he’d like to gamble a little on a really huge multi-year deal two years from now. I could see many players choosing to wait for free agency. No idea what Gordon is thinking.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
I want to see one more year of Gordon playing well before we commit to that kind of contract
marbotty - February 21, 2012
Well, we won't.
I put his resigning at 30%. Less as the season goes on.
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
I hope they get it done,
but I think that they need to do it by the end of camp or he’ll be traded later in the year especially if Myers is raking. The best scenario obviously would be that Frenchy starts out hot, Gordon signs a deal and Myers gets promoted meaning that Frenchy is dealt. I don’t give a shit how many t-shirts they’ve already printed for the Frenchy Quarter.
mitchfreakingmaier! - February 21, 2012
Think Of The
Bobbleheads!
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
Frenchy doesn't have any trade value.
One year of Gordon, if he performs like he did last year, will net a nice prospect or two. I just think that the likelyhood that the Royals will resign him has plummeted and isn’t looking anywhere near likely.
If he’s not signed by the start of the year, I’ll give it a 10% chance. 5% at the break.
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
I agree.
and is the F.O. so sure about Moustakas and Hosmer, that the Royals may never need another LH bat, ever? This line-up and organization is getting very right-heavy.
setupunchtag - February 21, 2012
After one more year of Gordon playing, 4/40 would be off the table. He’s price would skyrocket and he probably wouldn’t be willing to sign a long-term deal at all.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
Yep.
The more I think about it the $80M figure that they tossed around might really be what he has in mind. Another year like last year and might might just get it from the Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, etc…
mitchfreakingmaier! - February 21, 2012
yeah, I think the window for the Royals to get a favorable contract is closing...
they were going to get one, they’d have had to have taken the gamble that Gordon would continue to improve before he actually did it. Now, I think it favors Gordon to see if he can do it again and pull a Crawford/Werth type deal.
setupunchtag - February 21, 2012
See My Scenario
Below.
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
i think he'll regress some
no reason, other than pulling something out of my ass…i think his 2011 was unsustainable, but at the same time i think that he probably has matured some as a hitter and seitzer has been able to reach him, at least a little.
i would consider it a win if his WAR (or is WAR gauche these days, now it’s fxwfipWAR) is in line with his contract.
Home Run Tony Cogan - February 20, 2012
not sure
Logic tells me that he’ll regress. But my gut tells me that he’s enjoying the low-pressure fame that he gets from playing in KC, and that he’ll repeat his good 2011.
Loose Seal - February 20, 2012 via iPhone app
I think it's clear
Frenchy is the next George Brett.
LaFLamme - February 21, 2012
Hemmoroids on the Horizon?
buddyball - February 21, 2012
We needed to trade two of our outfielders this offseason
and possibly all three
marbotty - February 21, 2012
Rebuilding again already? Or still rebuilding?
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
If Gordon Won't
Sign a reasonable extension, I say play him for 2 years and let him go FA. If 2013 is our year, that will be perfect. Francoeur will be fine in RF this season, and if Myers looks ready in 2013, move Francoeur either in the off season or at the deadline in 2013. We will have gotten the best from both Gordon and Francoeur. With some luck, we’ll have Myers, Cain and Starling by mid-2014. Do we still get a compensation pick for Gordon going FA?
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
Uh
With some luck there will be
Gordon-Starling-Myers
in 2014. If you’re projecting based on luck, might as well go all in.
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
I'm Going For
The best case scenario if Gordon goes FA after 2013. I guess we could sign him as a FA, but is he and the team are successful in 2013, he’ll probably get a huge long term deal from someone. I wouldn’t want to see us go 5/100M for a 30 year old LF. And yes, Bubba probably will be nowhere near ready, but he could be.
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
I believe if you offer arb at 12.5M or above you get a comp pick
something like that
SagehenMacGyver47 - February 21, 2012
That Should Be
Easy enough to do, and I’d be happy if he took it.
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
Don't love that method of determining comp picks,
but it’s better than the previous one – at least it has to be a valuable player leaving, and valuable as determined by the market.
SagehenMacGyver47 - February 21, 2012
Does it even matter?
The world’s ending this year anyway.
Old Man Duggan - February 21, 2012
Maybe that's why Rany wants the Royals to go all in
A patient came in with back acne arranged as text that proves the Mayan prophecy is true, and Rany decided he would write whatever it took to see the Royals play winning baseball one more time before the earth cracks and blood fills the streets.
thelaundry - February 21, 2012
what font was it printed in?
Bronzillo - February 21, 2012
Old Style Whitehead
Nighthawk at the Diner - February 21, 2012
I think its ridiculous to judge him based on his individual metrics
When clearly his value to the team is more valuable. I predict 100 wins.
RoyalsRetro - February 21, 2012
Only 100?
You forget we have the Shortstop Jesus and the Savior himself, Eric Hosmer.
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
I think it's a cop out and sheer laziness that Will can't even throw out a nut tap prediction.
What a waste of our collective timemitchfreakingmaier! - February 21, 2012
Also glory hogging
kcdc1 - February 21, 2012
Look.
I’m just sticking up for the guy who broke the news, ok?
Yodazilla - February 21, 2012
Is that what a 'glory hole' is use for?
Bronzillo - February 21, 2012
I would guess Frenchy ends up closer to his career line plus maybe 10 points of slugging
Gopherballs - February 21, 2012
If He Can
Maintain last year’s .329 OBP and slug .443, he’ll still be sub par for a RF, and his range will probably continue to deteriorate. He’ll be fine for 2012, but I hope he’s gone before the end of 2013 at the latest.
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
how'd he manage 2.9 or 3.7 WAR if he was subpar in everything
billybeingbilly - February 21, 2012
that line would be right around average according to this...
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/08/yankees-hitters-vs-position-averages-32769
average line for RF (.264/.336/.427)
and there’s no reason to believe his defense will be significantly worse than average
billybeingbilly - February 21, 2012
Average Has Value
But I’d hope for better if we’re going to compete. B-R rated his oWAR at 3.0 and his dWAR at -.3. Fangraphs shows a UZR of -8.7 and ARM of 9.3, so they like his defense a little better based on his arm. 2011 was good production for the position; I was addressing gopherballs’ guess for 2012.
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
FWIW, the projection systems project him to be a below average hitting RFer (by about 20 points of OBP). Fielding is more difficult to project, but I think roughly average to a bit below average is fair, especially considering the aging curve of defense. The total package projects to be a below average total player. That is unless he “figured something out” last season, which we’ll see going forward.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012
repeating the OBP may be a struggle
Frenchy’s career line is 270/313/433, 302 BABIP, 162 ISO (isolated slugging percentage), 5.0% BB%, 17.7% K%.
In 2011, he hit 285/329/476, 323 BABIP, 191 ISO, 5.6% BB%, 18.8% K%.
The bump in OBP was driven virtually completely by a bump in batting average. His walk and strikeout rates were basically the same (a marginal increase in walks was offset by a marginal increase in strikeouts), so he is not really showing any new skills there. It is not uncommon for hitters to add power at this stage, so I am more inclined to buy some bump in power, but not any other real improvement in his offensive game.
Francoeur is probably fine as a placeholder, but the fear is that this front office will treat him as a cornerstone.
Gopherballs - February 21, 2012
Here's what I tell myself about Francouer's 2-yr deal to make me try to feel ok about it:
Francouer will likely take a step back this year, given his bounce-back year last year. So maybe the second year, 2013 is another bounce-back year, so by getting Frenchy for two years they are more assured of getting one good one? Yeah, it’s thin, but it’s all I got. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if either of Francouer’s next two years is better than last.
I’ve heard other commenters say this, and I concur, that one of the things that bothers me about the general idea of JF is DM saying that adding another starting pitcher (or two) might block a young thrower, (Montgomery, Duffy, and Crow, I suppose), who all strike me as iffy, but Francouer somehow isn’t an impediment to Myers (or Chen, where the pitchers are concerned) , who seems a more likely success, to me, than Monty, Duffy, and Crow. For me it’s another instance of the FO’s words not matching really matching their actions.
setupunchtag - February 21, 2012
Let’s say your scenario plays out and Francoeur has a down year in 2012 but a pretty good season in 2013. How do you think DM would react to that? I fear he’d again respond to a good year with another extension. The risk is high if Gordon is not extended. Then Francoeur will be 30 and two years slower.
Scott McKinney - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Really random but...
Did anyone else know that Jeff use to be a 4 star rated safety on Rivals? He must of had some decent wheels back then.
DannyDavis - February 21, 2012
yep....brought that up a few days ago when we were comparing starling and frenchy when they were drafted
billybeingbilly - February 21, 2012
Jeff Francouer
650 plate appearances
.281/323/.467 line
40 doubles, 4 triples, 21 homers
74 runs, 84 RBI
17 steals, 8 caught
stlfan - February 21, 2012
Prithee, Whence Came
These fine numbers and what do they represent?
philofthenorth - February 21, 2012
My predictions for 2012.
Guess I didn’t really specify that.
stlfan - February 21, 2012
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