Alex Gordon's Unprecedented 2011 Breakout Season

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 21, 2012 10:28 AM EST

Ed Zurga - Getty Images

8 months ago: KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 17: Alex Gordon #4 of the Kansas City Royals breaks his bat as he hits a RBI single in the fourth inning during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium on September 17, 2011 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

Going into the 2011 season, not a lot was expect from Alex Gordon. Some crazy fans even suggested that the best course of action may be trading him to another team. We all know what happened. Alex Gordon put up one of the greatest seasons statistically ever as a Royal. The breakout was nearly unprecedented.

To find out how often players have this level of breakout, I wanted to collect players who were similar in age and production. To get the numbers, I used historic Marcel projections. While Marcels may not be the most robust projection system, they are available to back to 1901. Marcels only looks at offensive numbers, so no defensive numbers were involved. I selected players which were similar to Alex in Age, OPS and Reliability (how much of Alex's stats are regressed to league average - basically how may PAs of data are used for the projection). Here are Alex's 2008, 2009, 2010 stats and his projection for 2011:

Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	24	571	0.260	0.351	0.432	0.783
2009	25	189	0.232	0.324	0.378	0.703
2010	26	281	0.215	0.315	0.355	0.671
2011 Projection		359	0.243	0.331	0.396	0.727

While he had a decent 2008, his last two seasons, which are weighted more, were not as good.

Then I found all players since 1980 who had the same projected OPS (+/- 0.010), Age (+/- 1 year) and reliability (+/- 0.05). 140 players made the list. Alex had the forth highest OPS. He had the highest OPS for those players with over 600 ABs. Here is a list of the top 12 players with over 400 ABs:

First Name	Last Name	Age	Year	AB	OPS
Mo	Vaughn	26	1993	539	0.915
Alex	Gordon	27	2011	611	0.879
Mark	Ellis	28	2005	434	0.861
Joe	Carter	26	1986	663	0.849
Michael	Barrett	28	2004	456	0.826
Mike	Cameron	26	1999	542	0.825
Randy	Winn	28	2002	607	0.821
Chris	Sabo	28	1990	567	0.820
Luis	Gonzalez	26	1993	540	0.818
Terry	Kennedy	26	1982	562	0.814
Von	Hayes	26	1984	561	0.806
Bo	Jackson	27	1989	515	0.805

The list is full of some decent players, but not many Hall of Famers or near Hall of Famers. Now here is a look at how the players performed in the season after the breakout season.

First Name	Last Name	Year	OPS	AB	OPS	Difference
Alex	Gordon	2011	0.879	2012	?	?
Mark	Ellis	2005	0.861	2006	0.704	-0.157
Von	Hayes	1984	0.806	1985	0.731	-0.075
Joe	Carter	1986	0.849	1987	0.784	-0.065
Randy	Winn	2002	0.821	2003	0.771	-0.050
Terry	Kennedy	1982	0.814	1983	0.776	-0.038
Luis	Gonzalez	1993	0.818	1994	0.782	-0.036
Mike	Cameron	1999	0.825	2000	0.803	-0.022
Michael	Barrett	2004	0.826	2005	0.824	-0.002
Chris	Sabo	1990	0.820	1991	0.859	0.040
Bo	Jackson	1989	0.805	1990	0.866	0.061
Mo	Vaughn	1993	0.915	1994	0.984	0.069
					AVG=	-0.025

8 of the 11 players saw their production decrease with the average decrease being a 0.025. The historic drop is not that bad. I expected some level of regression in 2012 after Alex posted a 0.358 BABIP last season, but it may be horrible.

Alex Gordon had an unprecedented breakout season in 2011. While people should expect some level of regression in 2012, historically the drop in production has been limited.

6 recs | 24 comments

Comments

Cool study - I was expecting a lot of regression from Gordon in 2012

But now I only expect a little. And it’s looks like Alex has about a 1 in 3 chance to be as good or even better than he was in 2011

Loose Seal - February 21, 2012 reply

If he can improve his K%

he has a chance to improve on last year.

ChiefWildcat - February 21, 2012 reply

If Yost Has

The sense to make Gordon, Butler and Hosmer the first three batters pitchers have to face, Gordon would see better pitches.

philofthenorth - February 21, 2012 reply

Dare to dream, sir.

ChrisCEIT - February 21, 2012 reply

That Leaves Frogger

As the likely cleanup hitter, followed by Mous and Cain. Not Ideal, but probably OK. Then Perez, Escobar and Giavotella.

philofthenorth - February 21, 2012 reply

At this point, the rest probably doesn't matter all that much

but I really want to see Gordon, Butler, and Hosmer get the most PAs this season (more or less in that order). I’m assuming of course that Gia can’t OBP even like .340 at the major league level.

Frenchy at the 4 spot sounds ugly but he’s only there if they really need to R/L through the lineup.

ChrisCEIT - February 23, 2012 reply

Who Else Is

There that even remotely makes sense? Mous?

philofthenorth - February 24, 2012 reply

Gordon's BABIP Was

.358, still probably unsustainable, but not as bad as .382. That was his wOBA. I still believe 2012 will be closer to 2011 than 2008, especially the HR’s. I think he has a 30+ HR season or two in him.

philofthenorth - February 21, 2012 reply

Thanks for catching the BABIP error.

Jeff Zimmerman - February 21, 2012 reply

Wow, Von Hayes

I hadn’t thought of him in years. He had a decent, late peak and then fell off the earth in his early 30’s.

philofthenorth - February 21, 2012 reply

I will rec any post that references Chris Sabo.

Great stuff, Jeff. Thanks for taking me back to high school.

mitchfreakingmaier! - February 21, 2012 reply

So is it fair to say that

Sometimes a breakout season is really a breakout season? Pretty interesting that some of those players got even better. Don’t think Alex’s BABIP stays, but I think he could improve some of his other numbers (BB, HR, RBIzzzz)

hawkinscm87 - February 21, 2012 reply

I'd say this is a possibility.

Obviously, 3 of 11 improving, 7 of 10 declining, and 1 basically staying the same does not bode particularly well for Gordon’s odds. Then again, 2 improvers were Vaughn and Jackson, particularly high ceiling guys. As a 2nd overall pick, Gordon is also a high ceiling guy.

The numbers don’t make these same comps, but I think some interesting ones are guys like Kirk Gibson and Phil Nevin. The easiest comp isn’t OPS, it is games played. All 3 were 1st round picks (1, 2, and 12, respectively), all dealt with injury issues, and around age 27, things clicked and they hit the holy smoke out of the ball.

These things are in Gordon’s favor. I certainly expect batting average to decrease next season, but a large fall-off seems unlikely.

dejezeus - February 21, 2012 reply

Good study idea

I’d also be interested in finding the study population by limiting the pool based on projection stability and then further limiting by % over-performance. So instead of limiting the pool to players near Gordon’s projected OPS, you’d limit the pool to players that outperformed their projected OPS by a certain percentage.

kcdc1 - February 21, 2012 reply

The projection stability is set by the reliability value I am setting

I am not sure of % over performance for the whole group is ideal. I am thinking of putting out he player’s percentile to go with a chart like this:

Jeff Zimmerman - February 21, 2012 reply

Yeah, by projection stability, I mean reliability (basically # of PA’s).

The change I’d make would be to look at a group that is characterized by its % of over-performance relative to its projection rather than looking at a range of projected OPS. Gordon’s 2011 was unique because he outperformed his projection by so much—not because his projected OPS was between .717 and .737.

You’d eventually be looking at the same thing—you’d just be looking at a larger group of players.

kcdc1 - February 21, 2012 reply

I never gave up on Gordon and don't think 2011 was a fluke

I actually think he will only get better. If his OPS in 2012 is under .890, I will be surprised. He hits the ball hard – even grounders. I think he will always strikeout a lot, but he more than makes up for it. When he puts the ball in play, he consistently makes solid contact. Sure, he has the occasional dud grounder to second base, but who doesn’t?

What’s really amazing about his high BABIP last year is it SHOULD have been higher. I remember the first couple of months where it seemed like every game he would crush one only to have it run down in on a sick play by the defender in the gap, or he would hit a lazer right at outfielder. He seemed very unlucky early in the year. I think things kinda evened themselves out for him as the season went on, which is why we saw the batting average rise in the final month or so.

Gordon is a very good athlete and a smart hitter that makes solid contact. There will be no dropoff, I don’t care what his statistical projections are.

Kim DeJesus - February 21, 2012 reply