Royals Review

Mitch can still play defense. He isn't Dyson, but isn't bad, either.

I could see Perez, Giavotella, Escobar, and Cain all get pulled. Especially against a righty.

Yost development plan be damned.

dejezeus - February 23, 2012 reply

Part of the problem with signing Yuni is that bench construction becomes really awkward

You carry a catcher. One down, three to go.

Since you carry Betancourt, he is your utility infielder (even though he sucks). This makes Getz superfluous at second, short. and third. Getz is a decent baserunner, so you could carry him as a pinch runner, but other than second base he doesn’t have much defensive value, and I don’t know how much of a better runner he is than Giavotella.

Dyson is a better baserunner and defender than Maier, but Maier is a better hitter. You can choose to carry both, or you can carry one as a defensive/baserunning replacement (Dyson).

I think the three strongest possibilities are:

Pena, Yuni, Dyson, Maier

or

Pena, Yuni, Dyson, Getz

or

Pena, Yuni, Maier, Getz

I think I would probably prefer the first one.

JKWard - February 22, 2012 reply

I'd hope beyond hope

but those hopes were dashed weeks ago when Batter-Nine-You-Sucky came back to us like an odd sock.

I’m not a Getz fan.

I’m not a fan of both Getz and Yuni on the 25-man. what’s the point?

1 catcher + Getz + Yuni + Maier or Dyson …

Getz looks like odd man out, Yuni being chosen in favor.

this is redundant agreement with “Part of the problem with signing Yuni is that bench construction becomes really awkward”

too many words to say that it's fairly certain it won't be

Pena-Getz-Dyson-Maier

whataboutbilly? - February 22, 2012 reply

because he's fat?

Just reinforce the legs.

Ron Swanson agrees

Scott McKinney - February 22, 2012 reply

Dyson is never going to play with existing outfielders, while the infield is more unsettled

The outfield is set. Gordon, Cain, and Frenchy are going to play every day, all game long — Yost is not going to pull any of them for a defensive replacement. Cain is the only starter who might get a day off every week, but it makes most sense to do that on days when a righty is starting and give the left-handed Maier those spots starts. Dyson might crack the lineup once a month when Gordon gets a day off.

That leaves Dyson’s only real role as pinch runner, which is something Getz can do pretty well too (although not as well as Dyson). Really, Butler is the only player who Yost has pulled for a pinch runner on any semi-regular basis, so the pinch running opportunities are pretty limited.

The infield is much more unsettled — Escobar is going to play almost every day, but Yost has already said that Betancourt will spot start at 3B in place of Moustakas against tough right-handers, and while Giavotella is the presumed starter, Yost did not start him every day last year and pulled him early and often for defensive purposes. Getz would likely get into more games than Dyson, as he plays a position where Yost is willing to make a defensive substitution. Getz is also left-handed, which gives him a platoon advantage, and projects as a better hitter than Dyson.

Getz has more utility than Dyson given the rest of the roster. Dyson would fit better on an NL team or one with Melky Cabrera playing CF.

Gopherballs - February 22, 2012 reply

Personally I'd rather have the LHH Dyson start once a week over the LHH Maier

I just think that Dyson’s skill set (speed, defense) are more palatable in a late-game or spot start situation, and I think that becomes even more prevalent if you think that the three main OFers are going to start everyday as often as they possibly can.

And in comparing Dyson’s bat to MITCH’s, I don’t see enough of an upside for Maier to make me choose him over Dyson when Dyson is clearly the better choice in every other category.

JKWard - February 22, 2012 reply

I think Maier is the better overall player and therefore is the better starter in pretty much any situation. Dyson’s bat is a major liability. I think Maier’s bat is almost ok for a MLB CFer. Dyson is a pinch runner and defensive replacement only. That’s all he’s any good at. He serves no other purpose.

Right, but Maier is very similar (but worse) than our current 3 OFs

in basically every way. (assuming that Cain can hit a little bit). He only brings value to the team in being able to give the regular 3 OFs a day off. Dyson’s speed and defense and superior to all of our current OFs, so he can bring value in every game in late inning situations.

None Of Our

OF’s will be removed for defense. Ever. Mitch is a much better overall OF, and a much better batter.

Ideally I'd rotate Mitch and Dyson every two weeks

to maxmize their unique values to the team. But that would probably piss them off. Unless one of the has a monster spring, I’m fine with either of them in KC, and I may even concede that Mitch will be a better fit until we see how Cain works out in center.

I’d have Maier and Dyson both on the team, as I think they both provide value (Maier to fill in when any of the starting OFers get a day off, and Dyson as a PR and defensive replacement). But I don’t see Getz offering much of anything. I’d have one UI and two UO’s.

I agree in theory, but

Yost’s desire/stated desire to pinch hit for Gio and Moose and his reluctance to ever pull any of our OFs mid-game make me think that we need two UIs more than 2 UOs. Or we need Mitch to learn 2nd base.

Loose Seal - February 23, 2012 reply

When/where did Yost say that he planned to pinch hit for Gio and Moose a lot (or talk about it at all)? I’m not saying he didn’t; but I just haven’t seen it.

Old Man Duggan - February 23, 2012 reply

I shoud've said "replace" instead of "pinch hit"

Part of the rationale of the Yuni signing was to spell Moose against LHP. This may have been solely for LH SPs, so maybe I’m extrapolating a bit, but I think we’ll see Yuni pinch hit against lefties from time to time.

Last year, we saw Gio regularly replaced late in games on numerous occasions, though it was probably mostly for defense, not pinch-hitting, so I misspoke.

Loose Seal - February 23, 2012 reply

I'd rather have a UTI than watch Getz don a Royals uniform again.

I really don't think Maier's bat is better enough? to give him an edge over Dyson as a 4th OFer

And yes, Dyson is a pinch runner and defensive replacement only, but so is Mitch Maier, when it comes down to it. Given equal playing time, I think they both get on base at a roughly equal percentage.

For me, Dyson’s defensive ability and speed overshadow the fact that he is slightly worse at the plate than Maier is.

The offensive difference between Maier and Dyson

I don’t have the time right now to look up all three projection systems, but here’s a quick look at the ZiPS projections of Maier and Dyson:

Maier .246/.324/.353
Dyson 0.237/.290/.302

That’s 34 points of OBP and 51 points of SLG. Dyson doesn’t project to be “slightly worse at the plate” than Maier. That’s the difference between a major league utility OFer and a minor leaguer. Dyson can’t hit. At all. He’s a massive, huge liability at the plate. Can’t make contact. Can’t get on base. Has no power. He’s an even worse hitter than Yuni, and that’s saying something.

Maier is a legitimate 4th OFer who can get on base a little and play all 3 OF positions with good defense. He’s the kind of guy you don’t mind making the starts that the starting OFers don’t make. Dyson is only worthy of pinch running and being a late inning defensive replacement. If he has to make 3+ PA’s in a game, he’s hurting the team.

Real quick, here's PECOTA

Maier .256/.327/.352
Dyson .236/.295/.304

Very similar to ZiPS

I see your point, but the difference in those hitting lines isn't an accurate representation

of what both those players offer. Here’s a comparison for you:

Mitch Maier: 1,043 PAs, 0.9 fWAR
Jarrod Dyson: 118 PAs, 0.9 fWAR

Dyson has earned 4.9 runs with his defense and baserunning.
Maier has earned -6.1 runs with his defense and baserunning.

Dyson’s UZR/150
2010: 30.9
2011: 16.0

Maier’s UZR/150
2010: -5.0
2011: 17.2*
*2011 was Maier’s best defensive season by far, but 2010 was not his worst.

These all have sample issues, but I don’t have much else to go on.

I view them as different players, for sure, but I don’t think that Dyson’s bat, given a proper amount of time to adjust to major league pitching, is so much worse than Maier’s that Mitch is clearly the better choice for a 4th OFer.

My opinion is that that Dyson’s tiny sample of UZR data shows a UZR/150 that is not sustainable unless he was born on Krypton (especially since we’re talking about mostly CF playing time both in the past and in the future). Also, Dyson has never been much of a hitter. There’s no reason to believe his bat will improve much, if any, in the majors, especially in limited playing time (which is all he’d ever get in the majors).

BTW, Dyson’s WAR has been helped a lot by how he’s been used: mostly just a pinch runner and defensive replacement. That maximizes his SB and other base running value, and defensive value, while limiting his PA’s (which, of course, are a negative for Dyson). Make him a 4th OFer who makes more starts and gets more PA’s, and his WAR per X decreases.

Dyson has an extremely limited skill set that makes him useful only in very limited situations. Although he is more fun to watch than Maier. But Maier is a player who can actually make statrts, play a whole game and not hurt the team.

I agree about his UZR/150 and the small sample size

But Dyson is very much so a better defensive player than Maier.

And Dyson’s WAR has been helped by the way he is utilized, but that doesn’t really break the argument. Dyson has earned as much cumulative WAR as Maier in 1/10th of the PAs. If Dyson had been given Maier’s 113 PAs instead of the 53 he received, there is no doubt that he would still have accumulated more than Maier’s 0.7 WAR last year. It’s actually a bonus as a player because Dyson can be utilized in ways that Mitch Maier simply can’t be while being used in the same way that Maier can (4th OF).

And while you say that Dyson’s skill set is limited, it doesn’t make them invaluable. Defense and baserunning are both very important assets to a team, particularly in a position like center field, especially for a role player, which is really what a 4th outfielder is.

And while you may believe, as I do, that Dyson will never be more than replacement level as a hitter, Maier hasn’t really himself been much better than replacement level over the past three seasons.

And if Dyson is above replacement on the bases and in the field while being replacement at the plate, he makes more sense to be the 4th OFer.

Dyson has earned as much cumulative WAR as Maier in 1/10th of the PAs.

Yes, based on an unsustainably high UZR over a small sample of data. If he doesn’t keep that crazy high UZR up, he doesn’t maintain that WAR rate.

And while you may believe, as I do, that Dyson will never be more than replacement level as a hitter, Maier hasn’t really himself been much better than replacement level over the past three seasons.

Just to clarify, as a hitter, Dyson is way, way, way below replacement level. He’d have to improve greatly to be a replacement level hitter. And Maier has produced at about the level you’d expect an ok utility OFer to produce.

And if Dyson is above replacement on the bases and in the field while being replacement at the plate, he makes more sense to be the 4th OFer.

If he were replacement level at the plate, then I’d agree with you. Unfortunately, he projects to be a genuinely awful hitter, well below replacement level. His hitting is a huge negative, and he should come to the plate as little as possible if the team wants to win.

whats a typical wOBA for a replacement level hitter?

dyson is at 315 in his 120 PA....

andrus put up almost 5 wins last year with a wOBA of 323…

FWIW, Dyson doesn’t project as a .315 wOBA hitter. ZiPS projects him as a .280 wOBA hitter.

i'll absolutely take the over on that projection

If he doesn’t keep that crazy high UZR up, he doesn’t maintain that WAR rate.

True, but Maier’s WAR rate is under a similar cloak from an unreasonable 3.2 fielding runs he earned last year in a small sample, almost all of which comes from the seventy innings he spent in center field last year.

And although his fielding runs would most likely taper off, there’s a lot of evidence to say that he would earn as much or more runs from his baserunning skills to compensate for it.

Just to clarify, as a hitter, Dyson is way, way, way below replacement level. He’d have to improve greatly to be a replacement level hitter. And Maier has produced at about the level you’d expect an ok utility OFer to produce.

I really don’t think he is way, way, way below replacement level. His professional stats (minors and majors) are a rough aggregate to Maier’s, although Mitch has had more PAs and has spent a lot more time in the major leagues.

And if you expect an okay 4th outfielder to hit .251/.335/.52, as Maier has over the past three seasons, I really don’t think Dyson would be so incredibly worse than that if he were given the same amount of time to develop in the majors.

True, but Maier’s WAR rate is under a similar cloak from an unreasonable 3.2 fielding runs he earned last year in a small sample, almost all of which comes from the seventy innings he spent in center field last year.

I think we should look at and project from his WAR over more than just 2011.

I really don’t think he is way, way, way below replacement level

I’m just going by his projections, which are truly awful. And they are based on his minor league and major league data. As are Maiers. I think the projection systems utilize that data to project the near future better than the speculation of you or me.

I think we should look at and project from his WAR over more than just 2011.

We did. In over 1,000 PAs as a professional major league player, Maier has accrued 0.9 WAR. He has averaged just under 0.5 WAR a season the last three years. He earned 0.7 in limited time last season; most of his WAR comes from Fielding (3.2). In previous seasons, his Fielding scores were -3.6 and 0.4. If you eliminate his fielding and baserunning (both of which have been generally negative to barely positive) from the equation, he has been worth roughly the following:

2009: 0.2
2010: 1.0
2011: 0.4

I’m just going by his projections, which are truly awful. And they are based on his minor league and major league data. As are Maiers. I think the projection systems utilize that data to project the near future better than the speculation of you or me.

You are correct about that. But even if Dyson hit .237/.290/.302, he is still more valuable to at least as valuable as Maier is as a fourth outfielder.

…when you factor in his defense and baserunning ability.

yeah...im taking dyson over maier personally...

but the smartest thing would be to keep both of them, which it sounds likely that they will

for sure

…when you factor in his defense and baserunning ability.

Because he’s going to continue to be a +20 UZR/150 defender? The fact that that is unsustainable is pretty important here, and you keep ignoring it, apparently assuming 1) his small sample UZR = his true talent level which we’ll see going forward, and 2) more PA’s (which he’d get as a 4th OFer) and the negative run value which they provide won’t hurt his WAR.

royal_in_cincinnati - February 23, 2012 reply

Neither is going to play much as the "4th" outfielder

Cain, Gordon, and Francoeur are going to play EVERY SINGLE DAY!! Barring injury. Dyson is the better option for the role that Yost is going to have them in. Late inning pinch running. Over a small sample size, weren’t the Royals a better team with Dyson on the bench than they were after he was demoted??

Neither is going to play much as the “4th” outfielder Cain, Gordon, and Francoeur are going to play EVERY SINGLE DAY!!

While I think all caps makes your point more compelling, that isn’t quite true. Gordon and Francoeur, barring injury, are both likely to play 150-155 games (as they did in 2011). We don’t know how Moore and Yost feel about Cain. I’m willing to believe they’ll play him in 150 games if he performs fairly well. If not, he’ll play less. But let’s say he does play in 150 games. That leaves 32 starts and probably a total of 150 PA’s for a 4th OFer. That’s not the end of the world, but that’s something. 32 starts means that the player is playing mostly a full game in 20% of the team’s games, plus some pinch hit, pinch run and defensive replacement appearances.

Over a small sample size, weren’t the Royals a better team with Dyson on the bench than they were after he was demoted??

That’s a good argument for keeping Dyson as the 5th OFer and 4th man on the 4-man bench, rather than someone like Getz.

royal_in_cincinnati - February 23, 2012 reply

Yeah, I have no desire to see Getz in KC.

The bench could be Pena, Betancourt, Maier, and Dyson. I would rather see Pena, Betancourt, Dyson, Kouzmanoff though. They have talked about giving Kouz some time in the corner outfield.

The only reason Gordon and Francoeur got shot down at the end of last season was to see Dyson and Cain, right? As long as they are healthy I could see them playing in 155 or more games.

As long as they are healthy I could see them playing in 155 or more games.

While that is possible, a DL stint for one of the starting OFers is at least equally likely. I think expecting more than 454 games played for Gordon, Dyson and Francoeur isn’t warranted.

royal_in_cincinnati - February 23, 2012 reply

If there is a DL stint that changes the discussion.

I still like Dyson more in the role Yost will have his 4th outfielder play for much of the season. If there is an extended DL stint, you can make a move to get somebody up. Lough could be an option. Kouz could be an option. Maier is out of options, so he might not be around. Myers could be an option.

Maier is out of options, so he might not be around.

That’s why you keep him on the roster. Because, among other things, DL stints happen. And I’m not necessarily talking about major injuries that put a player out for months. I’m just saying that in addition to the 32 starts a 4th OFer might make, there might also be a 15-day DL stint or two for an OFer which kicks the number of starts up to 45 or more. And that isn’t some remote possibility. It’s not unlikely.

He may not be a +20 defender every year

But he could easily be a +15, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to have a +20 UZR/150 for a season or two. Players have done it before. Franklin Gutierrez has four seasons with an UZR/150 over 17. There may be a season or two he would put up a +20, but a +15 is very realistic and a +10 is very likely. Maier generated almost half of his 0.7 WAR based on his Fielding last year (17.2 UZR/150, 3.2 Fld runs), which was the first time he had posted a positive Fielding number over 0.4.

Dyson is a better defensive centerfielder, and a consistent one. He will generate more Fielding runs than Maier has, which makes him more valuable in the field. Even if you put him at a 15 UZR/150, he would earn roughly 3.0 Fld Runs and 0.3 WAR just from his defense.

more PA’s (which he’d get as a 4th OFer) and the negative run value which they provide won’t hurt his WAR.

It probably would, to one degree or another, but he also has avenues for acquiring WAR (stolen bases, defense) that Maier doesn’t have.

Example: Alcides Escobar, in 2010 with the Brewers, .235/.288/.326, which is a rough aggregate of Dyson’s 2012 projection. Escobar was worth -21.8 runs as a hitter.

If Dyson is worth -21.8 runs as a hitter, and is worth just 10 runs on defense, his surplus value as a baserunner with his positional adjustment would make him a more productive player than Mitch Maier has ever been in any one season.

But he could easily be a +15, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to have a +20 UZR/150 for a season or two.

+15 alone would make him nearly the best defensive CFer in Major League Baseball. It is extremely rare for a CFer in MLB to maintain a +15 UZR/150. Michael Bourn is +7.5. Jacoby Ellsbury is +6.2. Chris Young is +1.4. Cameron Maybin is +8. Is Dyson really in like the top 3 of defensive CFers in baseball? I don’t know that we can say that with any certainty, or even that it is very likely.

may be a season or two he would put up a +20, but a +15 is very realistic and a +10 is very likely.

What do you base that on? You certainly shouldn’t draw any such conclusion from his tiny sample of MLB data. And while scouting reports say he’s very good defensively, assigning UZR/150 numbers to that is essentially guesswork. So where do you get that +15 is realistic and +10 is very likely when those numbers are so extremely rare? (if you’re talking true talent level, not occasional spike).

Is Dyson really in like the top 3 of defensive CFers in baseball? I don’t know that we can say that with any certainty, or even that it is very likely.

I don’t think we can either, but he is clearly very good, based on multiple scouting reports and watching him play. Of qualified players, there were nine outfielders last year who had an UZR/150 of 10 or more and three more that scored at least an 8. Would Dyson be in the top 11% of outfielders by defense? I’d say so. I’d say he’s a better defensive player than David Dejesus or Alex Gordon.

assigning UZR/150 numbers to that is essentially guesswork. So where do you get that +15 is realistic and +10 is very likely when those numbers are so extremely rare?

It is guesswork for the most part, due to his lack of quantifiable data. But it’s not a particularly wild speculation, when you consider all of the various reports regarding his defense.

Where would you rate him defensively then?

Of qualified players, there were nine outfielders last year who had an UZR/150 of 10 or more and three more that scored at least an 8. Would Dyson be in the top 11% of outfielders by defense? I’d say so. I’d say he’s a better defensive player than David Dejesus or Alex Gordon.

I don’t know that it makes sense to compare CFers side-by-side with LFers and RFers. I think it makes sense to compare him to CFers, as that is the position he’ll continue to play. Even if he’s a defensive replacement for a corner OFer, Cain would move to the corner with Dyson in CF.

Also, when you look at one year’s top WAR/150 players (be it CFers, OFers or any other group), you’re capturing a lot of one-year spikes, not the true talent level that players have maintained. For CFers (and pretty much every other position, a true talent level of 10+ means the player is probably the best defensive player at that position, or very close to it.

I think 8-10 is a reasonable estimate, which is considerably less than his performance so far (in a tiny sample of data). And with that kind of defense, he’s not maintaining his MLB WAR rate.

I don't think we're really getting anywhere on this

We should probably agree to disagree and move along. I honestly don’t think there’s much of a difference between the level of production you can expect between the two of them. I think Dyson is a better option for a 4th OFer for reasons that are typically more difficult to quantify.

Maier is a better hitter, but he lacks Dyson’s versatility.

Like I said earlier, I’d rather keep both, but if you have to have one, I’d take Dyson’s defense-first speed off the bench before Maier’s replacement-level subpar baserunning skills

replacement-level defense and sub-par baserunning skills*

Not replacement level.

Average.

Warden11 - February 24, 2012 reply

I'm a huge Dyson fan

and that makes me emotionally unstable in the area of wishing he was more than he really is.

“That’s What Speed Do” …

I wish the other skills were good enough to keep the speed on the bench ahead of other options, ie other guys with better skills in other areas

geesh I'm way too sober still to have typed such an incoherent reply

Neez Moar Buze

Black and Gold - February 22, 2012 reply

I have the same emotional attachment to Dyson...

…he’s cute. And fast. What can I say?

kcemigre - February 22, 2012 reply

According to MLB Network, Crow has "made the 2012 rotation."

Pretty enormous assumption there.

EspeciallyK - February 22, 2012 reply

Riiiigghht.

I’ve made it into Yale for grad school. I haven’t sent in my application yet, but I’ve made it in.

Yodazilla - February 22, 2012 reply

Congrats!!!!

I actually haven't made it into Yale.

I was just making fun of MLB network deeming Crow a starter before he actually earned it.

Should have used sarcasm font.

Yodazilla - February 23, 2012 reply

I know.

I was just being a smart ass. Again.

Black and Gold - February 23, 2012 reply

According to Mlb network

Soria is going to get his shot as a starter any day now

whataboutbilly? - February 22, 2012 reply

According to MLB Network,

The Royals have won 87 games and an AL Central title.

JKWard - February 22, 2012 reply

Would this really surprise anyone?

Warden11 - February 22, 2012 reply

It would be a huge surprise.

hawkinscm87 - February 22, 2012 reply

I just don't see how it'd be a huge surprise.

I think Crow going to Omaha would be a much bigger surprise.

Warden11 - February 22, 2012 reply

I don't know what

to think about it but its not like we couldn’t use him in the rotation.

Kansas City Keith - February 22, 2012 reply

So just to clarify?

You think he’s likely to be in the starting rotation this year? I think it’s possible he remains a reliever, but I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that he gets a rotation spot.

hawkinscm87 - February 22, 2012 reply

I think he's in KC, no idea on the rotation.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all though if he is in the rotation if he doesn’t blow up this spring.

Warden11 - February 22, 2012 reply

Me either.

I was thinking about this last night. Could the tough rhetoric toward Paulino mean the Crow is the guy in the rotation and that their roles are reversed from last season? It’s a very real possibility.

Aaron Crow is an All-Star

mitchfreakingmaier! - February 23, 2012 reply

Yes, a big surprise

Not that it is impossible. I’d put the chance right now at about 5%.

Scott McKinney - February 22, 2012 reply

@@@Pessemist@@@

According to MLB Network,

Mitch WIlliams provides insight and analysis.

Hair On Fire

How About This?

Pena, Betancourt, Maier, Kouzmanoff. POWERBAT!

Needs more Irving Falu.

BeauJackson - February 22, 2012 reply

Does it really matter how many pitchers are in our spring training rotation?

With pitch limits, split squad games, and constant line-up changes, the difference between throwing innings 1 through 3 versus throwing innings 4 through 6 seems pretty inconsequential.

There's more than 6 starters...

…when you consider that they’re piggybacked. What this really means is that the piggybacked pitching staff will be working on a six-day schedule.

kcemigre - February 22, 2012 reply

This confuses me even more...I should stop looking for reason in Yost's words

For Whatever Reason

Yes.

6 man rotation makes NO sense.

It’s not like any of these assholes pitch more than 6 innings a start anyway. What’s the added rest needed for? Whatever.

ChrisCEIT - February 23, 2012 reply

It's just Spring Training.

Forget 6 innings. They won’t pitch more than 3 innings per start. And, as I understand it, the point isn’t to add a day of rest, it is to add a day of work in the middle of the “off” days. I wouldn’t get too worked up about it, though, since I doubt this situation lasts very long in any case.

kcemigre - February 23, 2012 reply

They did this same nonsense last year.

It only made little sense then, it makes none now.

ChrisCEIT - February 23, 2012 reply

It makes enough sense in spring training

Yost has said they are only doing it in spring training. This is no big deal.

yeah...i dont get flipping out about something like this in the spring....

especially when we have no idea what their plans are between outings. perhaps eiland’s reduce the walks magic needs an extra BP session in between starts