With the recent announcement of Yost's semi-tentative "don't hold me to this" remark of having a four-man bench, the talk has turned to who the possibilities are for those four seats. One of them is completely and utterly locked in, in the malevolent form of Yuniesky Betancourt. One of those tickets for an all-expenses-paid summer of pine-riding is almost assuredly bought and paid for for Mr. Brayan Pena. The other two spots would seem to come down to three or four different players: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chris Getz, Jarrod Dyson, and the incumbent Mitch Maier.
Although I wouldn't prefer it, I don't think Ned Yost can resist not having one of either KevKou or Getz sitting a mere thirty or forty feet away from him at all times, ready to do...whatever it is they do...on the baseball diamond.
Which invariably leaves us with the 25th spot, and the right to send letters home from Summer Camp, between one Mitchell William Maier and one Jarrod Martel Dyson.

Based on some of the banter that I have seen, read, and taken part in, it would seem that most people lean towards MITCH as being the fourth outfielder. He has performed admirably if not spectacularly, over his last three seasons as a Royals' player. Across 931 PAs from 2009-2011, his hitting line is .251/.335/.352. His ZiPS projection for next year is .246/.324/.353. The quantifiable matter known as Maier is pretty assured at this point: he'll hit about .250, walk some, hit a couple extra base hits, and play an averageish defense around the outfield. He's a safe call as a fourth bench player and as a fourth outfielder; and there's not much to refute that.
There is no more or even less evidence to say that Jarrod Dyson would be a more adequate player coming off the bench than Maier has been. His ZiPS projection is a paltry .237/.290/.302 (Curiously, ZiPS has Dyson at 429 PAs while Maier is projected to get 310, both of which would require an extended trip to the DL for one or more starters), which is, suffice to say, not good. It's not even really adequate. It borders on being unacceptable. To try and prove a point, let's play the match game. Very simple. Sets of numbers in pairs, one of them is Maier's, one is Dyson's.
Professional cumulative stat lines (minors and majors):
Player A: .273/.343/.345
Player B: .251/.341/.414
This one's a little trickier.
Cumulative Career fWAR
Player A: 0.9
Player B: 0.9
Career UZR/150:
Player A: 24.4
Player B: -1.7
Career Stolen Bases:
Player A: 189-for-225, 84%
Player B: 46-for-70, 65.7%
So yeah, Player A is Jarrod Dyson. Over his limited playing time in the major leagues, Dyson has accumulated as much fWAR (in roughly 1/10th of the PAs) over his sparse and varied 44 professional games as Maier has over his 328. People will tell you that Maier is a better hitter than Dyson, and they are correct, despite the numbers above. Dyson walks at about the same rate as Maier does, but he also strikes out a bit more. Mitch is definitely a better hitter; his career line is depressed because he has spent three years in the majors. Dyson has 118 total plate appearances. MITCH is a major league regular, and should be considered as such, because he has managed to produce somewhat at the major league level (although Dyson has never really had the opportunity to). Cumulatively for their career, Maier is a better hitter.
The thing is, Dyson is better at everything else.
When you consider the facets of the major league game, the ability to put the ball in play is one of the most rhetorically apparent precepts to being a successful player. But it is far from being the only one. Defense and baserunning are the other two major categories of baseball skill, and Jarrod Dyson's lead in both is much longer. There really is no argument to be made about any of these three things.
So what it really comes down to is a question of archetypes; Do you want the middling, maybe-not-quite-but-not-much-better-than-replacement-level player who will hit .250, get on base a little and struggle on defense (but not blatantly so) who will otherwise not hurt the team? Or do you want a guy who's hitting skills are inadequate, but can burn around the bases and play superb defense?
1 recs | 138 comments
I picked Dyson
because MITCH is RP
Yamfun Cheng Kamfun - February 23, 2012
I thought the prevailing logic was that if you could have 5 OF, Dyson was your guy.
But if there was room for only 4, Mitch’s all around game was the one you keep. Can you play Kous at COF?
Dadunca - February 23, 2012
so tough to chose
Freneau - February 23, 2012
How can Paulo Orlando not be in this discussion?
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
The good news here is that I don't think either is a bad choice
Neither is great, but they are both serviceable in their way, and cheap. And Dyson is fun to watch, at least when he’s on the basepaths and in the field. I prefer him as a 5th OFer because then I’d get to see him on base more often (as a pinch runner).
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
gathwright
2.0?
Kansas City Keith - February 23, 2012
Gathright stunk in the field. His only skill was speed.
kcemigre - February 23, 2012
…and by “skill,” of course, I mean “tool.”
kcemigre - February 23, 2012
and he wasnt even good at stealing bases
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
Isn't that Dyson's only skill too?
Gathright actually had good plate discipline in the minors. His minor league hitting numbers are better than Dyson’s at every level.
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
Dyson is a superb defender, base runner, base stealer, and has a strong arm.
So no.
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
FWIW, Gathright’s UZR were quite good. DRS were pretty good too.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
But for some reason, he was not usually allowed in CF.
hawkinscm87 - February 24, 2012
MITCH!
Although I would be pretty upset if I never got to hear Dyson tell Joel Goldberg “That’s what speed do” Any way either one could be trained at this point to be a utility IF?
mitchfreakingmaier! - February 23, 2012
The problem is that most of the reason that these guys are valuable is their defense. And even if they could become serviceable UI’s, they would likely be poor defensive UI’s, and with their light bats, that would make them poor players and not of much use to the team.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
But Maier did play catcher and 3B in the minors, so…..go for it!
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
I just hate how this team has been justifying Getz being here.
I've apparently always slept through his mistake free games.mitchfreakingmaier! - February 23, 2012
I'm all for turning him into Willie Bloomquist.
The versatility part, that is. Not the weak-hitting bad-defense part.
Yodazilla - February 24, 2012
Would rather just have one IF and keep both
If I had to choose, I choose Maier only because Dyson can be sent down without losing him. But Dyson I think is the better bench player as a guy you can use strategically. Maier is the better guy if you need someone to fill in for 2-3 weeks because of injury.
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
This
If you’re paying $2M to Yuni to be your utility infielder, then truly make him your utility infielder. Having Getz on the bench is useless. His only role this year should be a backup 2B option in AAA if Giavotella just can’t hit. And I don’t think Kouzmanoff’s bat off the bench is any more appealing than Maier (and is probably less so). Mitch has a much better OBP. There’s no reason to have Kouzmanoff on the bench. He can only play one position and pinch hit (worse than Mitch). That leaves Maier and Dyson.
Given how much Ned used Dyson when he was available early last season, I think he loves having that little late inning toy available. To me, Dyson is a lock. The only question comes down to Maier vs. Getz. It’s tough to get a read on that one. Neddie obviously loves him some Getzie, but I think Chris starts the season in Omaha just because he’s got an option year left.
Sweep_the_Leg - February 23, 2012
Getz makes more money doesn't he?
I think there’s a deadline where you can release him and be off the hook for 5/6 of this salary.
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
Around mid-March, I think
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
Also consider if you want a guy for insurance that you can bring up if someone gets injured you can.
Expose Mitch to waivers, and no team may pick him up for the million or so he is making, so you can then outright him. Also, even if he does get picked up, you have another Mitch Maier in the form of David Lough, who would most likely be about the same as Mitch. The way Ned does not use his bench, you might as well have the bench be useful in high leverage situations, and so the best bench would be Yunie, Dyson, C-Rob and Pena.
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
im not a mitch maier guy....
but i’ll eat my shoe if lough ends up even close to as good as maier
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
so we're arguing...
…which replacement level player we would rather have as our replacement outfielder??
spring training games, please hurry!!!!
btw- i chose Maier. if Dyson could learn to walk at a slightly above average rate, then i’d choose him.
DickHowser4ever - February 23, 2012
Someone needs to invent a electrified bat that shocks the batter every time he swings and misses
Loose Seal - February 23, 2012
Frenchy would be dead
buddyball - February 23, 2012
Where's the problem?
Old Man Duggan - February 23, 2012
Yuni would spend years developing an immunity to this electrified bat...
just as he has done for iocaine powder.
Sweep_the_Leg - February 23, 2012
and arsenic
buddyball - February 23, 2012
and exercise
Sweep_the_Leg - February 23, 2012
and routine ground balls
DanielH123 - March 4, 2012
I like Mitch for now, but really...I'm not sure
I also assume that we’ll have only one UOF, since all of our prospective UIF can only play one position (if that).
If we break camp with Frenchy, Cain, and Gordon healthy and playing well, I think Dyson is the better candidate since we’ll need a pinch runner more than we’ll need a 4th OF. But, if there are health concerns and/or performance concerns with any of the starters, I want MITCH! available for a couple starts a week.
Also, if we have Getz on the bench, we don’t need Dyson as much for pinch-running/bunting. Oh, I can’t wait for the pinch-bunting!!!
Loose Seal - February 23, 2012
Don’t you think Moore acquired Yuni with the intent of him playing 3B, SS and 2B? While he doesn’t have experience at those positions, I don’t think there’s much reason to believe that he can’t play them. I don’t think he’ll be a good defensive 3B or 2B, but I think he can handle them.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
I will never premise an argument on the fact that Yuni can play serviceable defense
Loose Seal - February 23, 2012
I think there’s good reason to believe that a player who is a poor defensive SS can be a serviceable defensive 3B and 2B. You need much less range for those positions. Look, I value Yuni as little as anyone, but as he’s on the team with a guaranteed contract, he should be used in the best way for him to be used. And that’s to play three IF positions and free up a roster spot for a 5th OFer.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
We shall see in spring training
Ideally, Yuni will play bad (but serviceable defense) at SS, 2B and 3B, will hit lefties well, and comes into camp in the best shape of his life. If he does all those things, I have no problem breaking camp with him as our only UIF.
But I’m not going to assume he can do any of those things until he proves it. If he can’t do those things, I’d rather pay him $2MM to play video games, eat fried chicken, and drink beer in the clubhouse while we give his roster spot to some minor leaguer who can actually play baseball.
Loose Seal - February 23, 2012
If I were the GM, I’d seriously consider that option. But if we take that off the table, because it is not a realistic possibility for DM, then I think you have to just swallow the bitter pill and play him around the IF when needed and hope to hell Moore doesn’t eventually make him the starting 2B.
But I think the point here is that another UI really isn’t needed. What Dyson brings to the table as a 5th OFer is worth more to the team than the defensive improvement Getz represents over Gia and Yuni.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
One consideration
Assuming we choose Dyson over Maier, and Maier gets picked up by someone else on waivers, isn’t David Lough about ready and can’t he do pretty much what Maier can if need be?
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
I think Lough is worse defensively and really can’t play CF. And if Cain gets injured or fails, I don’t know if I want Dyson as the everyday starter in CF. Also, we really don’t know how Lough’s hitting will translate to the majors.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
In a year in which you don't expect to compete for a division title
Wouldn’t this be a good year to find out what you have in Lough?
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
I support this philosophy in general, but don't know enough about Lough to support it in this case
Loose Seal - February 23, 2012
I guess my thinking is
Maier and Lough are both close enough to replacement value, that is likely won’t make a huge difference, so if you want to keep Dyson, you shouldn’t worry about losing Maier.
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
With regard to this argument, I guess it comes down to whether you’re willing to lose Maier to give Lough a look at roughly 100 PA’s. Are those 100 PA’s worth losing Maier completely? I think I’d kind of rather have Maier around this year and quite possibly next year, even though he might cost $1.1M in 2013 (or something like that).
Quite frankly, I think the Royals need the depth. Let’s say the Royals dump Maier and promote Lough and he doesn’t look good in the majors. Let’s further say that Cain doesn’t look good in 2012 either. All of the sudden, the Royals have a LF, a RF and a 5th OFer (Dyson) with a huge weakness at CF and 4th OF.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
So what?
I mean if our outfield is that crummy, we’re probably having a crummy season, and Mitch Maier isn’t going to save that. At that point, you’re better off giving Cain and/or Lough a long look. There is really very little left for them to do at AAA.
Mitch is a nice player at the league minimum. I wouldn’t pay him a million bucks though.
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
The Royals would still have Orlando, D-Rob, and some guy named Wil as a backup to the backups.
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
Orlando and D-Rob are awful. And Myers can’t play CF.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
Thats just nonsense, if D-Rob was terrible he would not be on the 40 man.
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
Yes, because there are never poor players on a 40-man rosterScott McKinney - February 24, 2012
Exhibit A
Jesse Chavez
Sweep_the_Leg - February 24, 2012
That's a good point
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
oh-oh Orlando is injured, maybe we should keep Mitch around.
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
Kouzmanoff being sold short here?
I think he becomes our best RH PH, and a good option at 3B against tough lefties (career 115 OPS+ against LHP). Plus, being an “established” guy might mean Yost will actually use him to PH for Escobar, or whoever, in situations where it is warranted. I think a bench of Yuni, Pena, Maier, Kouz looks pretty okay, good balance, and not-horrible PH options. I would LOVE to have Dyson, because of his defense and speed, but if Maier isn’t on the team we lose him. Sure Lough (or whoever) might be able to replace what Maier gives you; but Lough might also be Dee Brown version 2.0.
Hal McRae's Telephone - February 23, 2012
Kouzmanoff is too limited in what he can do
With a 4-man bench, you need more versatility and utility out of each of those players (well, at least out of the 3 non-catchers). Kouzmanoff can only play 3B and PH against LHP. That’s not much reason to give a guy a roster spot, especially considering how infrequently Yost pinch hits.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
I don't see how Kouz is more limited than Dyson in that role
All Dyson can really do is spot start (redundant with MM), late-inning def replacement (redundant with MM, although better at it), and pinch run (his best aspect). He’s no threat as a PH, and I’d rather have MM make the occasional spot start for offensive purposes.
I think part of Yost’s unwillingness to pinch hit was the lack of (what he considered) viable options to do so. But KK is a veteran and hit 20 homeruns once, so I think he carries the “established vet tag” that would lead to more PH appearances. Moreover, an additional RH bat on the bench creates versatility in late-inning situations. And frankly, if KK is not on the team, then Yuni is getting those sport starts at 3B against tough lefthanders. I think KK brings more value than Dyson as a fifth OF.
Hal McRae's Telephone - February 23, 2012
I guess it just depends on how much value you put on Dyson's role and what he can do
He can play all three OF positions, but as a 5th OFer, he’d only get the rare spot start in CF. His real value comes from pinch running and as a defensive replacement. The reason I think that has more value than Kouzmanoff’s pinch hitting and occasionally spelling Moustakas at 3B is because Dyson is such a good defender and pinch runner. He showed last year (and quite frankly throughout his professional career) that he can come into a game late and add one or two bases with relative ease (by stealing bases and/or taking the extra base). Add that to his defense and he’s been able to put up some pretty good WAR numbers in short playing time. Now, as I pointed out elsewhere, I think the UZR will normalize at a more reasonable level, but even with that, I think his contribution adds up to more than Kouzmanoff’s very infrequently play in his very limited role.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
I'd love to have Dyson on the roster
Aside from your valid points, it’s just plain fun to watch when he’s in the game.
I think it’s probably smart to go with a 12-man pen given the large number of 4-5 inning starts we’ll have, but I’d sure rather carry KK and Dyson than, say, Blake Wood.
Hal McRae's Telephone - February 23, 2012
Dyson is much more limited than Kouz
But the one skill he has, he is very good at. Kouz is pretty “meh.” I guess he has hit lefties in the past, but he hasn’t been good at all the last two seasons.
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
Kouzmanoff is also a pretty good fielder (career +5.5 UZR/150)
But he only makes sense on this roster if Yost intends to platoon him with Moustakas, as complements Moose perfectly as a right-handed hitter and a good defender. But that would be a horrible idea from a developmental point of view. Kouzmanoff really should just be insurance waiting around in AAA just in case Moose gets hurt or falls on his face.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
You can't take a player with 44 MLB games and extrapolate his numbers over 150 games
Plus virtually all of Dyson’s value accumulated in the majors has come from pinch running and defense. The more Dyson bats — the thing he is legitimately horrible at — he is going to create more negative value.
And on this team, the opportunities for playing as a pinch runner and defensive replacement are very low. The starting outfielders are not going to get pulled for a defensive replacement or a pinch runner. At the other positions, Butler is the only player for whom Yost has shown any affinity to pinch run — catcher is the only other position with a slow player, but Yost hates to pull a catcher from a game (he did, what, 12 times last year). Keeping a player for the two times a week he pinch runs for Butler is not a very good use of a roster space.
Maier is no great shakes, but his skill set is better suited for this roster as the 4th outfielder. His defense is average in CF and a plus in the corners. He can hit a little (and projects about 85 points of OPS higher than Dyson) and is left-handed, so he can spot Cain against righties and pinch hit for the right-handed infielder when needed (which might actually happen on a semi-regular basis).
Dyson would be a much better fit on an NL team or one with more obvious needs for a late game defensive specialist.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
the thing is....he hasnt been legitimately horrible in his major league PA....
and he was around average at AAA. He’s really not as bad of a hitter as you’re making him out to be
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
Really?
Dyson has a 622 OPS (208/296/327) as a MLB hitter.
He has been nowhere near average in AAA. The average hitter in the PCL last year hit 286/359/448 with an 807 OPS. Dyson’s line in AAA is 276/345/354 with a 699 OPS.
Dyson is a legitimately horrible hitter.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
wRC+ of 96 in AAA…how is that not around average? 315 career wOBA in the majors….wRC+ of 102 and 83 in those two small sample sizes
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
No, wRC+ and wOBA include base stealing, which is where all of his value is coming from
In the majors, he has been relying on someone else to get on base and then pinch running for them. He cannot steal 1B, so the more he bats in the majors, the more negative value he accumulates.
As a hitter, he has been legitimately bad.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
his slugging is what is dragging his 'hitting' numbers down....
why dont you consider all those extra bases on the bases for offense? many of his walks and singles end up with him on 2nd or 3rd base
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
the lack of hitting is dragging his hitting number down
Despite the speed, he does not hit for average.
The steals just are not going to add much back given how bad the hitting is. Half his net steals in the majors came from pinch running. If he has to hit for himself, his poor hitting is going to outweigh a few more extra bases from steals.
Zips, which consider minor league numbers, projects him at 237/289/310, with a horrendous 62 OPS+. Adding some steals is not going to move his overall value enough to matter.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
Isn't the assumption though, as a 4th OFer is that he would still get all of those pinch run steals
Plus any additional ones from actually starting and playing more?
I don’t think you can subtract the pinch run steals just because he might start some games.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
Pinch running is irrelevant to the issue of his hitting ability
which was the point being addressed.
On the bigger point, the problem is that the way this roster is set up (and the way Yost manages), there is no need for a defensive replacement outfielder, and only an occassional need for a pinch runner. Last year, Dyson was on the roster for about 10 weeks, but was only used as a pinch runner 12 times. And over half the time he pinch ran for slow guys no longer on the team (Kila, Betemit, and Melky). Using him as a pinch runner once or twice a week (which may be less given that Butler is only regular candidate) is not going to add much value.
The 4th outfielder’s main role will be starting when Cain and occasionally Gordon and Francoeur get days off, which will require him to bat 4 times or so in those games. Maier is better suited for that role because the more Dyson bats, the less value he has due to his poor hitting.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
Mitch got like 100 at bats, why do you think he is going to start resting
the outfield this year?
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
Cain instead of Melky
Cain is not a veteran nor is he going to post +20 batting runs like Melky last year.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
they're gonna love the shit out of his defense though
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
I'd posit (as I have been)
That whatever value Dyson loses offensively he more than adequately makes up for with his defense and his baserunning.
ZiPS Projections:
Maier: .246/.324/.353 (.302 wOBA)
Dyson: .237/.290/.302 (.280 wOBA)
What’s the difference between those two lines? It can’t be more than 5 runs or so. There’s no way that Dyson doesn’t at least equal that when you include his defensive and baserunning improvement over Maier’s below-replacement baserunning and defense.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
Where do you get that Mitch is below replacement in defense and base running?
Warden11 - February 23, 2012
Statistics.
In the last three seasons he has 0.0 Fielding runs and -3.4 Baserunning runs.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
so exactly average (0.0) is now considered "below replacement"?
wOBA already includes stolen bases, so the baserunning is not going to add much. The difference of 22 points of wOBA should be closer to 12 runs over a full season — Gordon and Butler were 31 points apart last year and the difference in batting runs was 17 runs.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
Maier was at -3.2 Fielding runs before a fluky 200 innings normalized it to zero.
He’s negative for his career.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
I am not sure you understand what "replacement" means
UZR is scaled to 0 as major league average, not “replacement.”
And throwing out the data from a larger set than disagrees as “fluky” with you is improper analysis. In fact, the more recent data is going to be more telling of future performance than older data.
Gopherballs - February 24, 2012
It's fluky because the data is gathered from just over 200 innings in the field
Which is wholly unreliable for normalizing defensive statistical data. His two largest data sets (2009, 879 innings and 2010, 926 innings) point to a player who is average to sub-par defensively.
And yes, I was confused about whether 0.0 indicated average or replacement.
JKWard - February 24, 2012
Under Basic 101 Stats, you cannot throw out data just because it contradicts what you previously said
You are arbitrarily selecting partial data sets only because the full data set undermines your point. The 200 innings last year count, just as any 200 innings randomly selected from 2010 or 2009.
Over the last three years (2009.1 innings) in the outfield, Maier has been almost exactly average (-0.2 UZR/150).
And really the more recent data should be weighed more heavily than recent years (on a 3-2-1 or similar basis).
Gopherballs - February 24, 2012
the full data set does't undermine anything
He has a negative Fielding score for his career.
Defensive metrics, like offensive statistics, have to be normalized by a certain sample size of data. 22 games of defensive metrics is the same as 22 games of offensive stats.
JKWard - February 24, 2012
Maier has been barely below average
Maier’s career UZR/150 is 1.7 runs below average, which is pretty nominal and well within the margin of error for the advanced defensive metrics. Calling him “sub-par” defensively because of it is like complaining that a guy who hit .298 is not a .300 hitter — technically accurate, but meaningless in practice.
Gopherballs - February 24, 2012
And Dyson is a much better defender
And a much better baserunner.
And a worse hitter.
JKWard - February 24, 2012
A much worse hitter. Otherwise, I think we’re all agreed.
Scott McKinney - February 25, 2012
Watch Mitch Track
A fly ball; it’s beautiful.
philofthenorth - February 25, 2012
And here's this for you
Jarrod Dyson career (118 PAs): .315 wOBA
Mitch Maier career (1043 PAs): .305 wOBA
Mitch Maier’s 2011 (113 PAs): .312 wOBA
JKWard - February 23, 2012
What is the relevance of Dyson’s numbers there, other than to rely on a tiny sample of data. Look at his projections. That tells you a lot more than his 118 MLB PA’s.
Scott McKinney - February 24, 2012
…unless Dyson is on the roster, in which case, you have a pinch-running late-inning defensive replacement almost every night.
I’m not arguing the merits here… just pointing out Ned’s tendency to use Dyson.
kcemigre - February 23, 2012
Ned LOVED using Dyson in the late innings while he was on the roster last year
I think he’s a lock this year.
Sweep_the_Leg - February 23, 2012
I don't think he's a lock, but it's a factor.
And, actually, it might be reasonable to put Ned in the equation a little by asking whether we’d rather see him use Dyson properly or misuse MITCH. Because history suggests those might be the actual choices…
kcemigre - February 23, 2012
how was mitch misused?
b/c he didnt play regularly over vastly superior players? seems like yost used him perfectly…only when absolutely necessary
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
Who will Dyson be pinch running for this year?
As Gopherballs pointed out some slow guys are gone. He’d pinch run for Butler. Who else? Do you think Yost is willing to pinch run for every player that is slower than Dyson (which is everyone)?
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
kind of
SagehenMacGyver47 - February 24, 2012
I really doubt it
He only pinch ran for slow guys last year, even when there were other opportunities.
Scott McKinney - February 24, 2012
except not really
Dyson was up for 59 games last year. He pinch ran 12 times — 7 times were for guys no longer on the roster (Kila, Betemit, and Melky). He came in as a defensive replacement only once — in the infamous Vin Mazzaro 19-1 loss. He pinch hit twice for the pitcher in interleague play. That’s it. That’s the list.
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
His statistical record makes him out to be a bad hitter. Look at his projections. Zips, Pecota, and Cairo each project him to be a horrendous hitter. They use his MLB data and a translation of his minor league data. Do you think your read of those stats gives rise to a likely more accurate projection or estimate of his true talent level than those projection systems?
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
i will absolutely take the over if that's what you're proposing
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
i still dont understand why you think stats that completely ignore a significant part of his offensive game....
and more representative of his offensive value than an all encompassing stat
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
That's valid
His SB and CS should be taken into account as well. And I would prefer to use a projected wOBA (including his SB and CS) numbers if I had it. Certainly the hitting is horrendous, but the SB’s help. Here’s the problem: if he’s getting 4th OFer playing time (and making the 30+ starts that go with it), he’s not getting on base very much in the majors, therefore he has limited SB opps. From a WAR (and total value to the team) standpoint, he’ll do better per unit of time played if he’s getting his SB opportunities from others getting on base, and him pinch hitting for them. Long story short, if he’s getting more PA’s, he’s hurting the team.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
does nobody credible do a wOBA projection?
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
When Tango puts out his Marcel, it might include wOBA
Of course Marcel, while decent, is less accurate historically than ZiPS and PECOTA, and at least recently CAIRO.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
I could run it if I knew what to add to the formula to account for SB and CS
I have the basic formula, but I don’t know the Fangraphs variation which includes SB and CS.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
Also, for what it is worth.
WPA for Mitch is – 3.30
WPA for Dyson is + 0.29
BabyBlues - February 23, 2012
Not.worth.anything.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
and don't forget MITCH! is our 13th pitcher
buddyball - February 23, 2012
And Emergency Catcher!
philofthenorth - February 23, 2012
Mitch is no match for Dyson phyiscally, but Dyson is no match for Mitch mentally
You think that Dyson is fast, wait til he gets going! Where were we? Oh yes, Dyson covers way more ground in center, but Mitch has the better arm. Mitch can OBP better, but Dyson is the better pinch runner, and you might have known that I would know that Dyson is the better runner, so I can clearly not pick MItch. But Dyson was a below average hiter in Omaha last year, so I can clearly not pick Dyson. So you have made your choice then? I choose Dyson. But Mitch has been building up an immunity to iocane powder for the last three years (and he can pitch). Either way, you guessed wrong, and it is the fire swamp for you!
johnny4 - February 23, 2012
Inconceivable
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
Does anyone want a peanut?
Dadunca - February 23, 2012
Rec'd
Thanks for that.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
The truth is, when it comes to safety nets I don't think there is a wrong answer
Just a preference.
Dyson reminds me of a poor man’s Franklin Gutierrez with much less power, slightly better on-base and way more stolen bases.
Mitch Maier reminds me of no one. Because he is MITCH.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
OT: Is there anywhere to find out what would have been considered a "replacement-level hitter" last year?
As far as a triple slash line goes?
JKWard - February 23, 2012
That’s a little tricky, because there really isn’t any such thing as a “replacement level hitter” or “replacement level defender” because replacement level is a total player concept. But if you’re talking about hitting and SB/CS which added up to 0 net base runs for the WAR calculation, I can roughly estimate it. It was about .320 wOBA. Now there are multiple ways you can get there, but I can very roughly estimate that for last year at about .270/.330/.380 plus maybe SB-CS=20 (SB numbers over a full season). (These estimates are so rough that they might revoke my Half-Assed Sabermatrician Association card).
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
But that doesn’t take into account position adjustment…which you really can’t do for just one element of WAR. That’s where the whole “there is no such thing as a replacement level hitter” concept comes in.
Scott McKinney - February 23, 2012
Interesting.
JKWard - February 23, 2012
A player would be roughly replacement level
if assuming everything else was neutral (average defense, average baserunning, and a positional adjustment of zero — let’s say he split time equally between C and 1B), he was 20-25 runs below average as a hitter over 150 games. (Some use 25 runs for AL replacement and 20 runs for NL replacement).
Gopherballs - February 23, 2012
Vid of Dyson running his mouth
http://videos.kansascity.com/vmix_hosted_apps/p/media?id=133545451
RoyalsRetro - February 23, 2012
jeffress isnt good at madden?
worst stoner ever
billybeingbilly - February 23, 2012
No kidding
I figured those two things were like peanut butter and jelly.
Sweep_the_Leg - February 23, 2012
does this mean he isn't in the best shape of his life?
buddyball - February 23, 2012
I can't believe they don't play FIFA.
hawkinscm87 - February 24, 2012
Crap. I'd actually managed to block out that we signed Yuni to $2M to be our UIF.
What was otherwise a perfectly adequate evening has taken a turn.
Gross(est) - February 23, 2012
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next three years.
This may very well be Maier’s last season with the team. He is becoming more and more expensive. And older.
And there’s a flood of replacement or better outfielders that will be ready to play in the majors (Lough, Myers, Dyson, Cain) that will be around for the next half-decade or more. And cheap.
With every passing analysis of the Royals roster for 2013 I hate the Francoeur extension all the more.
JKWard - February 24, 2012
Expensive isn't really the right word for it.
Not dirt-cheap.
JKWard - February 24, 2012
david lough is not in any way a better or replacement for maier
billybeingbilly - February 24, 2012
Really wasn't supposed to be compared to Maier.
Was only meant to say that there are several at-least-replacement-level options (Lough, Dyson) available in the next three years or so, along with one or two (Myers, Cain) who are assuredly better than replacement.
But you don’t think that David Lough is no worse, no better than Mitch Maier?
JKWard - February 24, 2012
Now that I read that again, I guess I am saying that Lough could replace Maier as a 4th OF
Although I don’t think he can play CF.
He has been more productive in the minors than Maier was, so that’s something I guess.
JKWard - February 24, 2012
i think lough will/would be substantially less valuable than lough...
i dont think he’ll hit as much and i dont think he can passably play center…makes him pretty worthless as a 4th of
billybeingbilly - February 24, 2012
It is a great and troublesome man who is both the comedic and more tragic version of himself
JKWard - February 24, 2012
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is ‘Never get involved in a land war in Asia,’ but only slightly less well known is this: ‘Never add a one-dimensional player when depth is on the line.’ Ahaha ahaha aha….
9il - February 24, 2012
I'm glad some people caught on to what I was going for there
JKWard - February 24, 2012
Lets not make a FUSS
they would both be ok for US
Neither will do the team much HARM
and both certainly have CHARM
Either can get us through the games AHEAD
and neither fill me with much DREAD
no more rhyming now and I mean it
now lets go to the K and get some peanuts
don_jerovanni - February 24, 2012
Stop that rhyming, I mean it!
Sweep_the_Leg - February 24, 2012
If the toilet gets dirty, MITCH can clean it!
Warden11 - February 24, 2012
Dyson probably makes more sense as the bench player
but I would be much more happy with Mitch as a semi-regular player. And since Mitch cannot be taken off the 25-man roster without putting him on waivers, I would keep him as insurance should any of the three current outfielders need to be replaced.
Plus, I just like Mitch. I like cheering for him. Dyson is fine, but I’ve really grown to like Mitch and want to see him on the team.
James Quinn - February 24, 2012
That's The Best
Argument I’ve seen yet for MITCH!
philofthenorth - February 24, 2012
Plus more letters for us to read
Sweep_the_Leg - February 24, 2012
It matters,
liking your team.
There are some good players out there that I would be pretty unhappy to see the Royals sign even if they came in on team-friendly contracts. I just do not want my nightly game soured by seeing a bunch of guys playing every night that I just don’t like.
I was sorry to see Grudz, DDJ Matty Stairs and Ducky leave for the same reason. They may not have made sense on the roster, but I liked cheering for them.
James Quinn - February 25, 2012
Fandom Is Inherently
Irrational……….or is it?
philofthenorth - February 25, 2012
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