Baseball Prospectus has recently released their PECOTA projections which contains player comparables. Here is the list starting with the hitters:
| NAME | COMPARABLES | ||
| Jeff Francoeur | Ruben Sierra | Xavier Nady | Al Cowens |
| Brayan Pena | Bob Boone | J.R. House | Brian Harper |
| Billy Butler | Sean Casey | Wally Joyner | Brian Giles |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | Tony Batista | Frank Thomas | Greg Dobbs |
| Mitch Maier | Jeff Salazar | Hideki Matsui | Bob Skinner |
| Greg Golson | Reggie Williams | Devon White | Mookie Wilson |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | Danny Sandoval | Neifi Perez | Alex Cintron |
| Mario Lisson | Travis Fryman | John Hattig | Doug Rader |
| Lorenzo Cain | Russ Snyder | Rocco Baldelli | Angel Pagan |
| Irving Falu | Scott Fletcher | Mark Loretta | Brendan Ryan |
| Chris Getz | Ted Sizemore | Cookie Rojas | Dave Cash |
| Alcides Escobar | Chin-lung Hu | Julio Franco | Erick Aybar |
| Manny Pina | Dave Nilsson | Jonathan Lucroy | Sal Fasano |
| Max Ramirez | Jorge Posada | George Kottaras | Chris Gimenez |
| Derrick Robinson | Luis Melendez | Curtis Goodwin | Vic Harris |
| Jarrod Dyson | Nook Logan | Bob Dernier | Tom Goodwin |
| Alex Gordon | Seth Smith | Jim Ray Hart | Rico Carty |
| Paulo Orlando | Mike Davis | Tommy Gregg | Gene Kingsale |
| Clint Robinson | Justin Morneau | Glenn Davis | Kent Hrbek |
| Anthony Seratelli | John Vander Wal | Jim Leyritz | Wes Parker |
| Salvador Perez | Milt May | Pablo Sandoval | Tim McCarver |
| Mike Moustakas | Eric Chavez | Pablo Sandoval | Andy Carey |
| Eric Hosmer | Jason Thompson | John Olerud | Billy Butler |
| Johnny Giavotella | Jose Lind | Ken Boswell | Daniel Descalso |
| Wil Myers | Jason Heyward | Ed Kirkpatrick | Ron Fairly |
| Christian Colon | Gary Sutherland | Luis Gomez | Tim Foli |
| Cheslor Cuthbert | Robin Yount | Ed Kranepool | Wayne Causey |
| Brett Eibner | Rick Monday | Roger Maris | Jordan Schafer |
Notes:
| NAME | COMPARABLES | ||
| Joakim Soria | Rafael Soriano | Lee Smith | Bobby Jenks |
| Jonathan Broxton | Mark Wohlers | Michael Gonzalez | Francisco Rodriguez |
| Louis Coleman | Bobby Jenks | Chris Ray | Al Hrabosky |
| Greg Holland | Chris Ray | Ramon Ramirez | Jeff Stevens |
| Tim Collins | Oscar Villarreal | Masanori Murakami | Terry Forster |
| Brandon Sisk | Craig Breslow | Mark Lowe | Jose Mijares |
| Jonathan Sanchez | Rich Hill | Jorge De La Rosa | Rich Harden |
| Jose Mijares | Craig Breslow | Mark Lowe | Mike Stanton |
| Bruce Chen | Mike Cuellar | Whitey Ford | Bruce Hurst |
| Jeff Francis | Odalis Perez | John Smiley | Denny Neagle |
| Danny Duffy | Dennis Bennett | Brian Matusz | Scott Olsen |
| Luke Hochevar | Jeremy Bonderman | Jason Hammel | Kevin Millwood |
| Juan Gutierrez | Pete Vuckovich | Nick Masset | Kevin Correia |
| Aaron Crow | Jonathan Papelbon | Bill Slayback | John Montefusco |
| Blake Wood | Carlos Rosa | Gordie Richardson | Bob Grim |
| Mike Montgomery | Franklin Morales | Curt Simmons | Jaime Garcia |
| Felipe Paulino | Dwight Gooden | Geraldo Guzman | Scott Sanders |
| Henry Barrera | Scott Strickland | Luis Perdomo | Chad Orvella |
| John Lamb | Ryan Feierabend | CC Sabathia | Clayton Kershaw |
| Kelvin Herrera | Mike Fornieles | Don Gullett | David Palmer |
| Chris Dwyer | Edinson Volquez | Antonio Bastardo | Tim Hudson |
| Luis Mendoza | Jake Westbrook | Jaime Navarro | Tommy John |
| Vin Mazzaro | Pedro Astacio | Kevin Mulvey | Mitch Talbot |
| Sean O'Sullivan | Troy Patton | Justin Germano | Anthony Swarzak |
| Jeremy Jeffress | Jason Bere | Floyd Youmans | Dave Boswell |
| Everett Teaford | Jarrod Washburn | Tom Browning | Pete Schourek |
| Kevin Pucetas | Eric Hacker | Mel Stottlemyre | Brian Moehler |
| Will Smith | Sean O'Sullivan | Brandon Lyon | Tommy Hunter |
| Jeff Suppan | Orel Hershiser | Bob Feller | Mark Portugal |
| Tommy Hottovy | Bill Werle | Pablo Torrealba | Rich Folkers |
| Yordano Ventura | Mark Grant | Vern Law | Hayden Penn |
| Nathan Adcock | Omar Olivares | Jon Garland | Jim Beattie |
| Greg Billo | Dave McNally | Catfish Hunter | Dan Petry |
| Jason Adam | Dick Brodowski | Catfish Hunter | Milt Pappas |
| Robinson Yambati | Tug McGraw | Gene Nelson | Red Swanson |
1 recs | 83 comments
Wasn't Jeremy Bonderman supposed to be good?
tiquanunderwear - February 8, 2012
Yes.
To be fair, he was a 6.1 fWAR pitcher in 2006. He was the 20th-ranked prospect on BA’s list heading into the 2003 season. The Tigers had him pitch in the minors for one season, his age-19 season, and they seem to have little concern for throwing their young hurlers into the fire when they may not be ready (see: Rick Porcello).
Old Man Duggan - February 9, 2012
Jeremy Bonderman
He was a two pitch starter that had a short period of success. He was developing a change, I believe, that never quite got to average. I think he ended up with some injuries as well. He is a good example of why it’s possible for Crow to be a starter with only 2 and a half pitches.
Discodave - February 9, 2012
I saw Lamb in Springfield last year... He dominated them.
Im sure it being like 45 degrees helped.
averagegatsby - February 8, 2012
I loved Wally Joyner when I was a kid
even though he only played for the Royals four seasons. I distinctly remember having a meltdown when he left.
Connor Moylan - February 8, 2012
He was in Little Big League and used steroids.
Dude was legit.
OnixConcepcion - February 9, 2012
That was just the start of his movie career
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0431669/
He’s probably the biggest movie star former ballplayer starring in movies casting a shadow on the theory of evolution.
RoyalsRetro - February 9, 2012
I had no idea
Wally was a part-time actor. He was really a pretty good player, though I don’t remember crying when he became an ex-Royal.
Juancho - February 9, 2012
Awesome that imdb lists his appearances on Sunday Night Baseball as a player
Did I say awesome? I meant fucking ridiculous.
OnixConcepcion - February 9, 2012
Neifi and Yuni
Scary.
BeauJackson - February 9, 2012
Neifi's name illicits the taste of puke in my mouth...
flashbacks started demonizing my mind…then I saw Betancourt and blacked out…had to scroll down just to get this comment off…next step is curling up under the computer desk
PhattStairs - February 9, 2012
This was the first comp I noticed too
Yuni just needs to start hitting more infield pop-ups, and I wouldn’t be able to tell them apart.
aHorseWithNoName - February 9, 2012
Neifi won me like twenty bucks one night
Juancho - February 9, 2012
My impressions
1. First thing that stuck out was Hosmer compared to Butler… first place I looked.
2. So is Neifi Perez the worst player in the comparable list?
3. I’m sorry… Aaron Crow’s first comparable is Papelbon? If only…
4. Jason Adam and Greg Billo are going to turn into borderline HoF candidates? Sign me up.
5. I think Lamb wins this game…though Suppan’s is interesting.
Royals Medic - February 9, 2012
Suppan's gone
Juancho - February 9, 2012
Cookie Rojas was a 5-time all star
and actually got a few MVP votes here and there.
The Chris Getz comparison has to be a nut punch for him.
Black and Gold - February 9, 2012
To be fair
in Cookie’s era, guys like Cookie got picked for AS games and got MVP votes. He would not today.
Rufus R. Jones - February 9, 2012
I agree. But still, listing him as a comp for Getz
is pissing on graves. ignoring last wishes. going over the hill to kill the wounded after battle.
Nighthawk at the Diner - February 9, 2012
dwight gooden!!!
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
looks like a championship team to me
C-pablo sandoval
1b-frank thomas
2b-cookie rojas
ss-erick aybar
3b-jose batista
lf-jayson heyward
cf-rocco baldelli
rf-roger maris
dh-robin yount
harden, whitey ford, bonderman, jaime garcia, dwight gooden
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
Catfish hunter?
YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble - February 9, 2012 via mobile
i figured we wouldnt need a bullpen
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
shit...and i missed sabathia
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
and hudson and hersheiser
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
Hunter was a starter his whole career.
and better than everyone on your list besides Ford.
Bronzillo - February 9, 2012
yeah...i just glanced at the list quickly...as you can tell by my multiple corrections
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
When we signed Kooz-kooz
The first thing I thought was “Frank Fucking Thomas!”
YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble - February 9, 2012 via mobile
Despite my BP Premium membership, when I click on the spreadsheet link, I get "Directory Access Forbidden"
BP really pisses me off much of the time. Can someone e-mail me the goddamn spreadsheet? Thanks in advance.
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
As I've often said:
Jeff Suppan = Bob Feller.
Black and Gold - February 9, 2012
maybe what they mean by comparable is
that Jeff Suppan and Bob Feller would be comparably good today (and Feller is dead)
buddyball - February 9, 2012
The first thing I think of when I hear the name Kevin Kouzmanoff
is Frank Thomas
Kim DeJesus - February 9, 2012
That anecdote was already used
too late for you.
Try reading the comments first.
Bronzillo - February 9, 2012
When I think about Frank Thomas,
I immediately think Kevin Kouzmanoff.
mitchfreakingmaier! - February 9, 2012
When I think about Frank Thomas,
I immediately think about the slow white guy who played for the Senators in the ’60s.
Juancho - February 9, 2012
I can't read
I went to public school
Kim DeJesus - February 9, 2012
im sorry
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
Hey, you're from Rockhurst
I’m somewhat psychotically interested in true crime, and you had one of the all-time classics there: the kidnapping and murder of Bobby Greenlease back in the ’50s. The details are pretty unpleasant and the perps wound up sucking gas.
Do they tell you guys about this, or is it something more or less forgotten?
At SM South the story that has gone down through the years is that the Who played our senior prom in 1967. It’s actually true; I was on the school paper and checked the archives. They got photos and everything. The funny part is that the Who, who weren’t well-known yet in the US (their latest single was “I Can See for Miles”) was the opening act; they hadn’t written any of their legendary songs yet but “My Generation.”
The main act was the Buckinghams, some lame-o sixties band riding their one hit, “Kind of a Drag.”
Hot Tuna, of all bands, once played a show at South. This was back when they had like 3200 students rather than the 1800 (?) they have now.
Juancho - February 9, 2012
Interesting stuff
Did you just down a triple capp? You seem pretty revved up there.
My Sr Prom was at the Royal Stadium restaurant. Their wasn’t a game going on, but I think they lit the field up. Still that seems lame… My date threw up in my 280Z (and her shoes) later that night.
Bronzillo - February 9, 2012
they never talked about it....
they talked about the land being donated for the campus by the greenlease family but nothing beyond that. i read about it on my own though…crazy crazy stuff
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
The Buckinghams Had
Several hits, and their singer, Sonny Geraci, was in Climax,whose big hit was Precious And Few. You needed to know this.
philofthenorth - February 10, 2012
In One Ear and
Gone Tomorrow.
Good album name. Can’t say I’ve ever heard it. It’s from their post-hits, post-Juancho’s prom phase.
2X2L - February 10, 2012
Naw, that wasn't my prom
I’m class of ‘84. It’s just one of the stories that go down through school lore. “Hey, the Who played our prom once! Wild!” Or the nicknames for faculty members who stayed on a long time, through generations of students. The librarians Large Marge and Gay Jay must have been there 25 years.
Juancho - February 11, 2012
I missed the part
about your checking the archives to confirm that the story was true. Got it. We’ll call it their “post-SM South phase”, then.
2X2L - February 11, 2012
Somebody look up Carlos Beltran
and see if he is comparable to Yamil Benitez.
Kim DeJesus - February 9, 2012
I was convinced Yamil was going to be a great player
Looking over all of his numbers, there was very little reason to come to that conclusion
marbotty - February 9, 2012
Well, how old were you when he came up?
I was 17, and figured that we had found the next Albert Belle. He hit like 500 with power right out of the gate.
Dadunca - February 9, 2012
Lamb's comp is Sabathia?
Good stuff.
Yodazilla - February 9, 2012
Qestion
I dont understand the purpose of these. What goes into the decisions for the comparables?
higs - February 9, 2012
Same position and similar statistical record up to that point in their careers.
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
paulino at 27 or 4 years in is similar to doc gooden?
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
Paulino = coke head
buddyball - February 9, 2012
I have no idea
I am familiar with the general concept of comparables, but I really don’t know BP’s methodology, or BR or anyone who puts out comps.
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
I don't know how BP does it now
While BP may still use it, before Nate Silver went on to bigger and better things, one of the more unique PECOTA factors was the player’s size (height and weight). The info for height and weight were not perfect (I’ll take the over on Billy Butler’s listed weight), but should work well enough to group players with similarities. I do not know how much Silver relied on player size, but it seems like a valid component — we know big, heavy guys do not age as well, and I recall reading about tall second basemen having shorter careers.
Gopherballs - February 9, 2012
that makes the gooden/paulino comp even crazier...
i just glanced at goodens numbers, it looks like they may have just used the most recent season or two…gooden wasnt THAT different from paulino in the 26 and 27 seasons
billybeingbilly - February 9, 2012
Again, I do not know how BP does it now
but they used to have similarity scores for each comp player. Ichiro was famous for having a similarity score of 1 out of 100 for his best comp. Every player gets at least his three top comps listed regardless of whether those players have a high or low similarity score.
Age is factor too, so while Gooden may not rate highly on the similarity scale, the fact that he had similar seasons at similar ages may be enough to get him listed.
Gopherballs - February 9, 2012
Cool Factiod
In ’83, at 18 yrs old, for the Lynchburg Mets, Doc struckout 300 batters in 191 IP
Bronzillo - February 9, 2012
The Mark Teahen Show
SagehenMacGyver47 - February 9, 2012
Hosmer = Butler = Brian Giles
Eibner = Maris
mazoboom - February 9, 2012
I'm furious that a google search...
will not bring up the picture of Brian Harper being rolled where he is doing a head stand
PhattStairs - February 9, 2012
Most of these things are not like the others. Can you tell me what the F?
sfeldkamp - February 9, 2012
After reading Retro's writeup on Al Cowens,
I am very sure that Francoeur is nothing like him, except that they’re both inconsistent. But Cowens was at least good more often than not, and had an OBP near .400 a few times.
hawkinscm87 - February 9, 2012
Ken Boswell and Ed Kranepool
hit #5 and #6 in the left-handed platoon lineup of a World Series winner.
So there’s that.
2X2L - February 9, 2012
So, why do we baseball fans put some much stock in PECOTA
besides it gives us something to talk about until ST begins?
daveyork - February 9, 2012
Because Nate Silver (the inventor of PECOTA) was the man until he got into politics
Here is a discussion on the problem with PECOTA:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/new_pecota/
Pecota has Chris Sale as the 2 best starter in all the league.
Jeff Zimmerman - February 9, 2012
That's all very interesting
But PECOTA has performed well in the past (at or near the top of the pack with ZiPS and Chone) and the new PECOTA performed well based on projecting the “future” from past stats. So is there any reason to believe that its projections aren’t still very good, and indeed at or near the top of the pack?
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
PECOTA has been good since Silver left 3(?) years ago. They are way at the bottom of the pack
They have improved a bit, but still have glaring issues.
Jeff Zimmerman - February 9, 2012
Really?
They performed that badly in the most recent forecaster challenges?
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
The first year without Silver they were dead last.
There is no way Marcels should be anyone in those challenges.
Jeff Zimmerman - February 9, 2012
The first year without Silver was quite a while ago
Silver has been gone from BP for several years. I thought in recent years that ZiPS, PECOTA and Chone had done the best, among the group of projections that have been around every year for the past few years (at least until Chone went underground).
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
It was equal with ZIPS and oliver with this study by Tango
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/testing_the_2007_2010_forecasting_systems_official_results/
Jeff Zimmerman - February 9, 2012
soooo
Bruce Chen = Whitey Ford? Suddenly, 2/9M sounds like a bargain!!!
Also – With these being PECOTA comparables, why doesn’t one of our guys have Bill Pecota as one of the comps?
aHorseWithNoName - February 9, 2012
We should have re-signed Willie Bloomquist :(
Scott McKinney - February 9, 2012
Jeez, I didn't notice that one
The only possible comparisons between Chen and Ford are: They both have a Y chromosome. Neither one suffered from any birth defects. They can both speak a language. Both of them have fingernails. Neither one smells bad after he takes a shower with fresh refreshing Irish Spring deodorant soap.
Juancho - February 9, 2012
All soft-tossing lefties
are the youthful Whitey Ford, still with his fastball, in their dreams.
PECOTA knows all and factors in self-image.
2X2L - February 9, 2012
The aging Whitey Ford used to cut the ball
with a sharpened bit of his wedding ring. When he got busted for that, Elston Howard sharpened one of the buckles of his shin guards and cut the ball on it. Jim Bouton says so and he was there.
Wonder if Mr. Chen knows a few Whitey Ford or Gaylord Perry secrets? In fact, is there anyone notorious today for throwing a spitter or shine ball or scuff ball?
Juancho - February 9, 2012
A timely question
for Jonah Keri, who says that the split-fingered fastball has supplanted all manner of doctored deliveries.
2X2L - February 9, 2012
Bruce would be a much better pitcher
with a reliable spitball.
I wonder if you could throw an earwax ball: you know, you pick out your earwax and smear it on the ball. Could be done twice a game, and they couldn’t possibly stop you. Or how about a snotball?
Juancho - February 11, 2012
You refer to
the cerumen ball. It was known to be used in the old Pacific Coast League by a pitcher named Max Keratin, who had established a special dietary and exercise regimen in order to increase the production if cerumen in his ear canals for use on the days he worked the mound. He died in the service of his country during World War II when he failed to respond to extremely clamorous warnings to take cover.
2X2L - February 11, 2012
How did Kirk Rueter
not show up among Chen’s comps? Because that’s the comp my algorithm spits out.
Of course my algorithm is entirely proprietary and may involve actual spit-takes when viewing the results of other systems, so your results may vary.
2X2L - February 9, 2012
I don't think any of these comparisons make any sense
Pérez and Moose are both going to be Pablo Sandoval? Greg Billo and Jason Adam are both going to be Catfish Hunter? Damn, we’re gonna be a good team.
Juancho - February 9, 2012
Maybe this list is based on the drunken ramblings of BILL PECOTA
That would best explain the methodology anyway.
Bronzillo - February 9, 2012
"Betancout is like Nefi Perez. You don't say."
That killed me.
Mike Brownlee - February 10, 2012
If Cuthbert Turns
Into Wayne Causey I will kill myself, then kill everyone.
philofthenorth - February 11, 2012
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